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Sicamore
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Just wondering what people here think of what is going on over there. Being from Ukraine, seeing my home being destroyed and taken over by Russia is absolutely unacceptable. I hope Putin realizes what he is doing.

Old Post 03-01-14 17:14 #
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Technician
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Sicamore said:
Just wondering what people here think of what is going on over there. Being from Ukraine, seeing my home being destroyed and taken over by Russia is absolutely unacceptable. I hope Putin realizes what he is doing.
Ukraine is an absolute asset to Russia, so I understand his geopolitical motives. I also understand why you'd want Russia out of your government but, quite frankly, I'm curious as to why you guys want to be a part of the EU. I'd wait for Putin's Eurasian Union, myself. The EU is going down the crap hole.

Old Post 03-01-14 17:19 #
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Sicamore
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Well, that's one question, but regardless of the ties they need, what gives a country the right to send troops onto the soil of another sovereign nation? I understand the political unrest, but Ukraine has a functioning government and is capable of solving their own issues right now. Yanukovich is no longer president, and his leave was 100% legitimate - no one wants that man in office, and him fleeing made him eligible for desertion of his position. They voted a new president in, so therefore Yanukovich no longer holds any authority.

And regarding the EU, no matter what would benefit better, Russia should NOT be deciding this.

Old Post 03-01-14 17:29 #
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Quasar
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Sicamore said:
... what gives a country the right to send troops onto the soil of another sovereign nation?

The right of force, or, in other words, the law of the jungle. As in all wars of aggression. And as in all wars, right and wrong don't enter into the equation - only what stands to be gained for the aggressor.

Old Post 03-01-14 17:48 #
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Technician
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A great video explaining Russia's geopolitical interests in Ukraine. Just to get people up to date.


Quasar said:
The right of force, or, in other words, the law of the jungle. As in all wars of aggression. And as in all wars, right and wrong don't enter into the equation - only what stands to be gained for the aggressor.
Essentially the same reason the U.S. invaded Iraq. Or Turkey's and Saudi Arabia's interest in Syria. Russia needs Ukraine for it's pipelines, agriculture, and national security.

Old Post 03-01-14 17:54 #
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Maes
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Sicamore said:
Yanukovich is no longer president, and his leave was 100% legitimate - no one wants that man in office, and him fleeing made him eligible for desertion of his position


Here's the thing -it's not entirely legitimate. I never heard of a president leaving the territory of his country being sufficient grounds for considering the situation "a power void" and enabling others to "step in". As to "none wants this man in office", even in the worst regimes and dictatorships you'll find a small army of various apparatchniks and nomenklaturas of various ranks and positions that actually benefit from the status quo.

And I'm not referring to the oligarchs, but to pretty much anyone holding a public job, benefitting from e.g. a particular subsidy, a particular provision, a state pension etc. Those have everything to lose at every change of the status quo, and there's always a 10-20% of the total population in this category in every country.

Yanukovich's move was not just a panicky fleeing as it may seem at first glance -he still controlled the Army and the Police forces, and his party was still officially ruling, no? What reason had he to flee then if not as part of a deliberate plan to cause other events?- He probably has another plan in his sleeve -just like the EU, US and Russia have (or had).

Old Post 03-01-14 18:01 #
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4shockblast
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I'm from Ukraine as well.

Personally, I did not expect Putin to invade. Russia's aggression right now is kind of alarming: an invasion of Ukraine can cause some serious backlash from Europe and the US, much more than when they invaded South Ossetia around five years ago because Ukraine is larger and closer to Europe. Moreover, Russian senators are intending to recall the Russian ambassador to the US, so they do not seem interested in diplomacy. So, at this point, I have no predictions as to where all of this will lead.

I think it's also important to note that Ukraine is divided into the east and the west, and East Ukraine has a much larger support base for Russia, so this isn't a one-sided issue; many people in Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Crimea welcome the Russians even today. It's very likely that if they stay in the east, they will not meet much resistance and the US and Europe will not attack directly because of the fear of a full-scale war. If they move to the west, though, there will be a large amount of resistance, and the US and Europe can simply provide the Ukrainian resistance with weapons and training without directly fighting the Russians.


Maes said:


Here's the thing -it's not entirely legitimate. I never heard of a president leaving the territory of his country being sufficient grounds for considering the situation "a power void" and enabling others to "step in". As to "none wants this man in office", even in the worst regimes and dictatorships you'll find a small army of various apparatchniks and nomenklaturas of various ranks and positions that actually benefit from the status quo.

Yanukovich's move was not just a panicky fleeing as it may seem at first glance -he still controlled the Army and the Police forces, and his party was still officially ruling, no? What reason had he to flee then if not as part of a deliberate plan to cause other events?- He probably has another plan in his sleeve -just like the EU, US and Russia have (or had).



Yanukovych was by far not the only one to escape, and his escape may be a legitimate attempt to avoid assassination. However, you are correct that he still has a support base, and saying that no one wants him in office isn't entirely correct, so he likely went to Russia to regroup and ask for more Russian support. Whether or not he will be allowed back into office by Putin (in the case of a Russian success) is uncertain because I doubt that Putin trusts him very much anymore.

Old Post 03-01-14 18:02 #
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Technician
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4shockblast said:
Personally, I did not expect Putin to invade. Russia's aggression right now is kind of alarming: an invasion of Ukraine can cause some serious backlash from Europe and the US, much more than when they invaded South Ossetia around five years ago because Ukraine is larger and closer to Europe. Moreover, Russian senators are intending to recall the Russian ambassador to the US, so they do not seem interested in diplomacy. So, at this point, I have no predictions as to where all of this will lead.
I don't think the U.S. or Europe would interfere. To put it bluntly, I don't think they care, they really have little investment in you. If anything, Europe probably wants you to be under Russia's control just to keep the pipelines safe. And Frankly, if the EU wanted you, they would have pushed harder for you after the Orange revolution.

Old Post 03-01-14 18:10 #
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Maes
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Fact is: you probably dream of a free and self-deterined Ukraine.

But regardless of what you dream for yourselves, other have precise plans for you, and the means to follow through with them. These plans means that you'll either be a Russian province, or an EU-IMF (USA) protectorate. And who knows? To paraphrase an old Yugoslav film, maybe Russian shit is indeed better than European "cake" (which might still be filled with shit, but that glazing make it very, very expensive) after all ;-)

@Technician: the EU, to date, has not shown any truly bold unified diplomatic and military initiative or the ability to conduct them (this doesn't cover individual actions by states that happen to be EU members and traditionally being strong NATO powers, e.g. in Libya), and I don't think it will ever be able to. For one there's no such thing as a "European army", the EU has proven unable to solve even a dispute about a bunch of rocks in the middle of the sea in an anything but "hot" area without US mediation. The only thing the EU can do is to mount a sort of passive-agressive diplomatic pressure based more on economic bullying, which is totally worthless versus a superior and self-reliant opponent like Russia (or the US, for that matter).

Last edited by Maes on 03-01-14 at 18:27

Old Post 03-01-14 18:18 #
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dew
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Technician said:
Russia needs Ukraine for it's pipelines, agriculture, and national security.

Uh, not really. There are other pipe routes these days and it's Ukraine that desperately needs Russian oil and gas, as does Europe. Every time Ukraine defaults on oil payments and Russians close the valves, the whole Eastern Europe trembles. Agriculture... eh, this is not the early 20th century. Ukraine has very fertile land, but I don't think that's too important in today's world.

Now with national security we're getting somewhere. The naval base in Sevastopol is, of course, very dear to Russia. Currently the lease says till 2047(?), but the mainland Ukraine doesn't like the idea very much. Russia will do a lot to ensure it keeps the home of its Black Sea fleet though.

I'd say Ukraine will have to throw a serious, big bone to Putin to even keep Crimea. The region is ethnically Russian by majority and it was part of Russia before Khruschev gifted it to Ukraine in 1954. Maybe a 6 million year lease of the Sevastopol base and more autonomy for the Crimean parliament. I would be surprised if Russian soldiers butted in anywhere else in Ukraine.

EDIT: The US and EU will pontificate and negotiate, but ultimately if push comes to shove, they'll do nothing, because they're not even in a position to be able to do much.

Old Post 03-01-14 18:20 #
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Clonehunter
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Hopefully Putin will have everything finished by the time of his next GQ Photoshoot.

Old Post 03-01-14 18:22 #
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Maes
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dew said:
Ukraine has very fertile land, but I don't think that's too important in today's world.


What do people eat where you live? iPads or crude oil? Or they live off the electromagnetic energy emanated by sending so many pointless tweets? Ukraine was ranked 3rd in the world in 2011 for agricultural exports.

Old Post 03-01-14 18:26 #
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Sicamore
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Quasar said:

The right of force, or, in other words, the law of the jungle. As in all wars of aggression. And as in all wars, right and wrong don't enter into the equation - only what stands to be gained for the aggressor.



So then we can all agree that Russia is an aggressor that needs to be stopped, and not only for Ukraine. Some may say that Russia is helping those who want the ties, but the point here is the move INTO Ukraine and Russia's only real moral behind this - get land and show the world who they are. If the rest of the world sits without acknowledging Russia's actions, what stops other countries like China from seeing potential to take over land? Or anyone else. If the invasion of Russia is seen an an inclusive problem to Ukraine, people are missing the point that this situation signals a far bigger and slow change in world power. Russia is taking its first step to try and basically say that "we are alive, watch out".

Of course, in a situation like this, help from other countries becomes risky. In terms of the USA and Europe, helping Ukraine would be good, but it also means challenging russia and telling them to calm down. This could end in them backing off, or them saying we shall do whatever we want. The latter could have global implications.

Last edited by Sicamore on 03-01-14 at 18:41

Old Post 03-01-14 18:35 #
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4shockblast
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Sicamore said:


So then we can all agree that Russia is an aggressor that needs to be stopped, and not only for Ukraine. If the rest of the world sits without acknowledging Russia's actions, what stops other countries like China from seeing potential to take over land? Or anyone else. If the invasion of Russia is seen an an inclusive problem to Ukraine, people are missing the point that this situation signals a far bigger and slow change in world power. Russia is taking its first step to try and basically say that "we are alive, watch out".



Whether Europe or the US will take any action at all beyond diplomacy is difficult to say; wars are expensive, and Ukraine may not be worth it. It's very likely, as far as I'm concerned, that if Russia doesn't leave east Ukraine, nothing will happen, but even if they do, there's a very good chance that the resistance will end up on its own. I'm not sure if Russia is intending to go that far, though; I don't know if they want to deal with west Ukraine.


Maes said:


Fact is: you probably dream of a free and self-deterined Ukraine.

But regardless of what you dream for yourselves, other have precise plans for you, and the means to follow through with them. These plans means that you'll either be a Russian province, or an EU-IMF (USA) protectorate. And who knows? To paraphrase an old Yugoslav film, maybe Russian shit is indeed better than European "cake" (which might still be filled with shit, but that glazing make it very, very expensive) after all ;-)



In all honesty, it almost seems better to me for Ukraine to be two separate countries (East and West), though at this point it may be too late for that to fix anything. However, if Ukraine was initially separated into two, a lot of violence could have potentially been avoided

Old Post 03-01-14 18:41 #
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Technician
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dew said:

Uh, not really. There are other pipe routes these days and it's Ukraine that desperately needs Russian oil and gas, as does Europe. Every time Ukraine defaults on oil payments and Russians close the valves, the whole Eastern Europe trembles. Agriculture... eh, this is not the early 20th century. Ukraine has very fertile land, but I don't think that's too important in today's world.

http://www.eurotrib.com/files/3/051...ipeline_map.jpg

It's a large, intricate, pipeline, friend. It would be very expensive for Russia to direct that much gas through Belarus.

And Ukraine may have shot it's own foot. Commie friend China is threatening to call in debt and may sever agricultural deals.

Old Post 03-01-14 18:43 #
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MajorRawne
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Maes said:
Fact is: you probably dream of a free and self-deterined Ukraine.

But regardless of what you dream for yourselves, other have precise plans for you, and the means to follow through with them. These plans means that you'll either be a Russian province, or an EU-IMF (USA) protectorate. And who knows? To paraphrase an old Yugoslav film, maybe Russian shit is indeed better than European "cake" (which might still be filled with shit, but that glazing make it very, very expensive) after all.


I'm not sure how overly militaristic paranoia and total lack of money is worse than a crap joint currency and some silly regulations about expensive and poisonous light bulbs.

Old Post 03-01-14 18:45 #
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Sicamore
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Maes said:
Fact is: you probably dream of a free and self-deterined Ukraine.

But regardless of what you dream for yourselves, other have precise plans for you, and the means to follow through with them. These plans means that you'll either be a Russian province, or an EU-IMF (USA) protectorate. And who knows? To paraphrase an old Yugoslav film, maybe Russian shit is indeed better than European "cake" (which might still be filled with shit, but that glazing make it very, very expensive) after all ;-)




Rather be part of an American protectorate than a Russian province. At least we'll get some control over how we want to live and not be labelled as Russians, something we have historically been battling for years. We still remember the Holodomor, and cannot see ourselves a part of those who caused it, to bring to light one issue.

And anyways, what the hell - we are a COUNTRY. An individual country with an individual culture and individual beliefs. Russia is not us, even if a part of our country has a majority of them.

Last edited by Sicamore on 03-01-14 at 19:02

Old Post 03-01-14 18:54 #
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dew
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Maes said:
What do people eat where you live? iPads or crude oil? Or they live off the electromagnetic energy emanated by sending so many pointless tweets? Ukraine was ranked 3rd in the world in 2011 for agricultural exports.

We eat Polish, German and our own food, heh. Ukraine is certainly one of the most fertile places in the world, but my country is not that far and shares its climate, so we're perfectly able to grow our own food and so is Russia, a big grain exporter itself. I couldn't find any clear numbers quickly and I'm getting hungry (heh), but as far as I can tell, Ukraine exports to Kazakhstan, China and other countries that can't grow enough of their own wheat, not Russia.

What Russia does get from Ukraine: coal and steel. And that's what Europe would love as well, because mining and steel production got somewhat expensive with "life standards". Gotta exploit Ukraine before they elevate themselves as well. Still, Russia's interest in Ukraine is more geopolitical than economical. That Sevastopol base...


Technician said:
It's a large, intricate, pipeline, friend. It would be very expensive for Russia to direct that much gas through Belarus.

Oh, don't get me wrong. The southern Družba pipeline is extremely important and largely irreplaceable at this point of history. But Russia wasn't hesitant to "cut off" Ukraine when it defaulted on oil playments and demanded more favourable prices, meaning they transported less oil through Družba and Ukraine would be defacto stealing EU's oil. See how much would EU support Ukraine then. It's NOT such a powerful blackmail card for Ukraine.

Last edited by dew on 03-01-14 at 19:26

Old Post 03-01-14 19:21 #
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Technician
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I don't know about coal. Russia has the second biggest coal reserve in the world.

Old Post 03-01-14 19:56 #
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MajorRawne
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Technician said:
I don't know about coal. Russia has the second biggest coal reserve in the world.

As well as the largest number of furry hats.

My ex is Russian and she said it's a corrupt and dirty country which is run by the Mafia. She still loved it though, and they hate Germans, so that's a plus point (take that Angela Wankel or whoever is currently trying to dominate Europe through the single currency). I honestly don't know why a country would wish to be dominated by them - as it most likely would be domination, rather than an alliance. The only reason I can think of it the Russian bear is on their doorstep, and they have little or nothing that America wants, so if they stand against Russia, they stand alone.

Old Post 03-01-14 20:13 #
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myk
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Sicamore said:
Some may say that Russia is helping those who want the ties, but the point here is the move INTO Ukraine and Russia's only real moral behind this - get land and show the world who they are. If the rest of the world sits without acknowledging Russia's actions, what stops other countries like China from seeing potential to take over land? Or anyone else. If the invasion of Russia is seen an an inclusive problem to Ukraine, people are missing the point that this situation signals a far bigger and slow change in world power. Russia is taking its first step to try and basically say that "we are alive, watch out".
It's not a first step at all, since it's what the US has been doing for a long time and even the EU has joined in, such as when France, Britain and the US campaigned into Libya, toppled its government and made way for a bunch of of puppets trained in Europe, the US and private companies that "run" the country, now a mess full of rebellious armed tribesmen and militants, to allow oil companies to try and funnel out oil cheaply while the living conditions of the local population plummet.

East Europe should really be a bloc of its own, separate from both West Europe and Russia. You probably know the issues Russia represents, but the EU is running unsustainable austerity policies which force it to expand territorially to replace demand that it loses within or ensure primarization in business partners to dump the production of its industry (if mainly Germany's) there and take cheaper commodities.

What Russia is doing is also an escalation of a conflict that was already taking place through the economy and activists that are not independent. The EU and the US are already intruding by dealing directly with the opposition figures. That's a destabilization policy because they are disregarding a democratically elected government. Russia moved military forces but the EU and the US had already disrupted your sovereignty by working on the streets, in the markets, the media and through diplomacy to further the opposition and weaken the elected government. So Russia is fondling what's already raped.

Every time the EU and the US declare an opposition group "more representative than the government", as they did recently in Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Bolivia, Venezuela and Paraguay, they are disrupting local sovereignty and democracy, since only local elections, or at least an internal conflict, can define sovereignty, not an external power. Be that Russia, the EU or the US.

Old Post 03-01-14 21:12 #
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dew
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Technician said:
I don't know about coal. Russia has the second biggest coal reserve in the world.

True. They have the first or second biggest reserve of about everything, right? ...In the frozen tundras of Siberia. :) It seems they're sixth in the world in actual total production and surpass Ukraine four times (consider the size difference), but Russia is immensely energy-hungry and why not have more coal when it comes cheap, eh? It's not like they're switching to solar energy any time soon. The approach is kind of similar to Canadia and Ameristan having the top3 reserves of exotic or heavy metals like Wolfram, but ignoring them, because China already provides the world with them for pennies a ton.

I'd also like to use this post to tell MajorRawne to get out. What an ignorant tool.

Old Post 03-01-14 21:59 #
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geo
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I'm out of the loop to this, but looking at the countries local, it is in the 'south' so it would be warmer, better area for crops and food. Russia however, I'm pretty sure is mostly uninhabitable, leading to lack of food. It is on a water border good for shipping.

I am sorry to our Ukraine users that things like invading or destroying a country still happen in this day and age. In my mind, I would be very happy if country borders were just locked and countries needed to use trade agreements to get things done. Like Russia would buy crops and food for whatever it is that Russia has. Which sadly, might be nothing.

If there is a military strategic advantage to owning Ukraine, then buy land or rent land for a buffer zone to defend.

Old Post 03-01-14 22:36 #
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Belial
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Sicamore said:
Yanukovich is no longer president, and his leave was 100% legitimate

Not according to your constitution.

http://www.president.gov.ua/en/content/chapter05.html

Article 111 states 3/4 majority for an impeachment vote to be valid (regardless of other requirements, which I doubt have been met), that's 338 votes vs. the 328 votes that were there.

Old Post 03-01-14 22:40 #
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darknation
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God, I hope nobody nukes Chernobyl.

Old Post 03-01-14 23:07 #
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Gez
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Sicamore said:
I hope Putin realizes what he is doing.

He certainly does. Say what you want about Putin, but he is neither stupid nor deluded. He's cunning, ruthless, and dangerously competent.


Technician said:
And Frankly, if the EU wanted you, they would have pushed harder for you after the Orange revolution.[/url]

The EU would be interested in extending Eastward to Ukraine; however there is the issue of the financial aid Ukraine needs... With the bullshit financial policies of the EU, nearly every country is deep in debts whose interests accrue faster than they can be repaid. Germany's not going to be willing to go from its own pocket once again.

Old Post 03-01-14 23:14 #
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Sicamore
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Belial said:

Not according to your constitution.

http://www.president.gov.ua/en/content/chapter05.html

Article 111 states 3/4 majority for an impeachment vote to be valid (regardless of other requirements, which I doubt have been met), that's 338 votes vs. the 328 votes that were there.



You do have a point there. It is not 100% legit.

But he suddenly left in a plane in the middle of the night, and it can be said that there was nobody left to run the country. It was deemed a desertion, not to mention his party dropped all support. Does this really look like an overthrow? Even if he was on the brink of being assassinated, there is no evidence that there was direct physical hostility towards him and thus no reason to leave.

Last edited by Sicamore on 03-01-14 at 23:40

Old Post 03-01-14 23:30 #
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Belial
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Sicamore said:
You do have a point there. It is not 100% legit.

But he suddenly left in a plane in the middle of the night, and it can be said that there was nobody left to run the country. It was deemed a desertion, not to mention his party dropped all support. Does this really look like an overthrow? Even if he was on the brink of being assassinated, there is no evidence that there was direct physical hostility towards him and thus no reason to leave.


Shots Kill Ukraine Judge Who Sentenced Protesters
I guess that could've reminded him of Ceausescu's fate.

What's happening now is a revolution that's making up rules as it goes along. Doesn't put you in a good position to cry foul on legal grounds when Putin pulls the 'right to protect Russian nationals in foreign countries' card.

Old Post 03-01-14 23:51 #
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188DarkRevived
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Sicamore said:
Being from Ukraine, seeing my home being destroyed and taken over by Russia is absolutely unacceptable. I hope Putin realizes what he is doing.


Being from the south-eastern region of Ukraine I am disgusted by the efforts of the West to steal the naval base of the Russian Empire.
And Barack Obama, out of all people, should keep his filthy ass on his own damn continent instead of meddling in the affairs of others half-the-world away. He has no right to threaten Putin! He should focus on winning the respect of his own people which are slowly losing their respect for him. At least Putin is respected on his home turf and in a neighboring country.
Obama is a n00b in diapers compared to him!
Our business is our business. Foreigners should stay the fuck out of our conflict or we will let out our battle cries and they will hear us roar in our defense.
They better damn be scared, or else we'll make them sorry for ever daring to interfere.
If the US wants to expand its own navy then it should build one on its own instead of stealing someone else's.
My own father served in the Soviet army and he is disgusted by the egotistical imperialistic greed of the USA.

Old Post 03-02-14 00:23 #
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Sicamore
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188DarkRevived said:


Being from the south-eastern region of Ukraine I am disgusted by the efforts of the West to steal the naval base of the Russian Empire.
And Barack Obama, out of all people, should keep his filthy ass on his own damn continent instead of meddling in the affairs of others half-the-world away. He has no right to threaten Putin! He should focus on winning the respect of his own people which are slowly losing their respect for him. At least Putin is respected on his home turf and in a neighboring country.
Obama is a n00b in diapers compared to him!
Our business is our business. Foreigners should stay the fuck out of our conflict or we will let out our battle cries and they will hear us roar in our defense.
They better damn be scared, or else we'll make them sorry for ever daring to interfere.
If the US wants to expand its own navy then it should build one on its own instead of stealing someone else's.
My own father served in the Soviet army and he is disgusted by the egotistical imperialistic greed of the USA.



Where did you here that USA wants to steal naval bases? As far as the US is concerned, Russia is breaking international law and trying to gain control of Ukraine in order to heed their own survival. This has created a cold war front, and THAT is why the US is concerned. Not for some base and not for Ukraine at all, in fact. He could give less of a shit about democracy. All that matters is where this is going on an international power level. Also America doesn't need Russian base tech; they have better and newer things back home, regarding your original statement. Americans do have a bloody history and have been known to act like the Russians are doing now, but imperialism is not the case here, specifically the geographical type.

And you are acting like Putin is a saint - no right to threaten him? Really? The whole world is watching as this crazy idiot tries desperately to take Ukraine. The "threats" are mostly requests for him to simply think about his mental state of mind. He doesn't care about the Russians in Ukraine. The country is the only thing separating Russia from Europe, and if Ukraine goes with NATO, this is bad for Russia. That is the reason.

egotistical imperialistic greed of the USA Russia.

Last edited by Sicamore on 03-02-14 at 01:59

Old Post 03-02-14 01:34 #
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