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Sicamore

Ukraine and the current situation

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myk said:

I think you joined too many adjectives there, and that specific combo is tied to an ideology spread onto the West since the '70s: "There's no such thing as society (only individuals)". It also beckons to an older idea of assumed sinfulness.


That ideology comes from Christianity ("Divine Right to Kings") which shows how predominate it is in our society which is rather dangerous thinking which is infact just another excuse to escape responsibility for their own actions as well ("I can't help it, it's my nature") not to mention the current "Human Nature" falsehood is also just a secularized version of Christian ideology which are basically the same thing that cannot be divorced from.

Also if there is no such thing as society "only individuals" then we would have been long extinct by now since society and altruism is what keeps us surviving.

Not to mention the "Human Nature" fallacy displayed by Enjay also leads to contempt towards the entire human race as well which is why it's so dangerous (read: misanthropy).

Point is, perhaps people like Enjay should stop showing contempt towards the human race and see that Capitalism (the current mode of production) is what really encourages selfishness which is how it works and functions as a system and there's alternatives that encourages the opposite (Socialism/Communism).

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Thing is that even with a decidedly non-capitalist mindset, humans are still humans and will still manage to fuck everything up. In our society, ownership is status and power (if you want to be, you need to have). So this leads to greed: the desire to have more than others so as to be more than others. But take a look at kula: social status is tied not to what you have, but what you give away, resulting in people wasting lives and resources on making and delivering useless trinkets so as to assert their status. The society is based on generosity rather than greed, and yet it leads to the same wasteful excesses.

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Gez said:

Thing is that even with a decidedly non-capitalist mindset, humans are still humans and will still manage to fuck everything up. In our society, ownership is status and power (if you want to be, you need to have). So this leads to greed: the desire to have more than others so as to be more than others. But take a look at kula: social status is tied not to what you have, but what you give away, resulting in people wasting lives and resources on making and delivering useless trinkets so as to assert their status. The society is based on generosity rather than greed, and yet it leads to the same wasteful excesses.


Society isn't determined based on what people want but rather by how they produce it.

Also the Kula Ring isn't remotely close being the primary way people get their stuff.

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I think that pretty much sums it up

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This fascination with Putin's machism is something I don't truly get. He might look ruthless and one step in front of everyone else at the moment, but he's stirring serious shit that will come back to haunt Russia for years. Economically, this looks like a total disaster. The very day Russian soldiers invaded Crimea, the ruble dove by 8% (iirc) and Russian companies are just adding up the massive damages. Even the oligarchs seem to be taking financial hits as Europe limits its dealings with them, which could be troubling even for Putin personally in the long run.

Furthermore, it drives Europe towards seeking alternative energy sources, which could take away Russia's big trumph card if the US starts mass-exporting gas. It could even push EU towards the Czech president Zeman's crazy dream of a united European Army. Russia is not the Soviet Union and there's just Belarus as the last satellite nation for support. Russia may bully Ukraine, because that's one of the most struggling countries in the world, but against the EU, much less the US, they're greatly undermanned and they don't hold as many trump cards as some describe. Especially as spring hits Europe early after the warmest winter in decades. Oil reserves are unusally high.

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dew said:

Economically, this looks like a total disaster. The very day Russian soldiers invaded Crimea, the ruble dove by 8% (iirc) and Russian companies are just adding up the massive damages. Even the oligarchs seem to be taking financial hits as Europe limits its dealings with them, which could be troubling even for Putin personally in the long run.


They won't be able to keep the dealings limited for too long, though. In today's world, everybody is interdependent. There are no 100% self-sufficient economies, and Putin knows that well. He might have to absorb the initial shock and some short-term pressure, but he knows his opponents can't keep it mounted for long.

dew said:

Furthermore, it drives Europe towards seeking alternative energy sources, which could take away Russia's big trumph card if the US starts mass-exporting gas.


Yeah, because waiting for US ships to haul gas once the shale gas extraction technology reaches a sufficient throughput (in 10 years, maybe), will be a much more viable solution than to come to reasonable terms with Putin.

dew said:

It could even push EU towards the Czech president Zeman's crazy dream of a united European Army.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA. ROFLMAO. So you're telling me that the EU, which doesn't mind Turks violating its maritime and air borders EVERY DAY, which couldn't solve a dispute over a bunch of fucking rocks without the US mediation, and which doesn't even mind having the territory of one of its members formally under foreign occupation, will suddenly man up and collectively send its "elite troops" to draw first blood in a foreign country which isn't even a EU member (N.B., not a single shot was fired -yet- from Russians against Ukrainian forces, another smart move by Putin). GTFO, you're killing me.

N.B.: there might be some limited "peacekeeping mission" undertaken independently by some EU members with traditionally strong militaries even after WWII (the UK and France, to stop wagging the dog around the bush), but Russia is not fucking Mali or Libya.

dew said:

Russia is not the Soviet Union and there's just Belarus as the last satellite nation for support. Russia may bully Ukraine, because that's one of the most struggling countries in the world, but against the EU, much less the US, they're greatly undermanned and they don't hold as many trump cards as some describe.


Russia is definitively not the USSR, but Putin is no drunkard Yeltsin, either. He'd never allow Russia to become encircled and allow others to set geopolitical faits accomplis, like in Kossovo. That's what the EU Germany and the US have -apparently- failed to consider.

dew said:

Especially as spring hits Europe early after the warmest winter in decades. Oil reserves are unusally high.


Heating is just one of the uses for oil -and most importantly, gas-. Industries use a lot of gas for direct heating. Germany imports over 30% of its gas from Russia -that's quite a significant quantity, considering how many industries they have-. If this suddenly goes away, it will be hard to Frau Merkel to say "Hold on, oh you Heroic Industrialists, for our good friend and ally Uncle Sam will bring us gas from across the Atlantic" (Heh, Ironic, considering that at some point, Uncle Sam delivered quite different types of wares accross the Atlantic, also destined to Germany).

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Wow. Just wow.

Right Sector leader: Kiev should be ready to sabotage Russian pipelines in Ukraine.

Great way of giving Tovarisch Putin a good excuse to seize control of even larger parts of Ukraine, or even all of it, if the current "government" and the West can't keep its bloodhounds/thugs/agents under control. After all, Putin would then be acting ALSO in the interests of the West, since Europe would then lose yet another source of oil ;-)

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Maes said:

They won't be able to keep the dealings limited for too long, though. In today's world, everybody is interdependent. There are no 100% self-sufficient economies, and Putin knows that well. He might have to absorb the initial shock and some short-term pressure, but he knows his opponents can't keep it mounted for long.

This is totally backwards. It's Russia that's losing money faster over this dispute, they would find themselves destabilized much faster, not to mention they're still greatly indebted to the US and that crazy Putin's aide who indicated Russia might stop paying their debts was quickly silenced. When it comes to economic starvation, the rich West still holds the trumph cards. Well, at least when it doesn't concern China, then the West should better tread lightly (as it is).

Yeah, because waiting for US ships to haul gas once the shale gas extraction technology reaches a sufficient throughput (in 10 years, maybe), will be a much more viable solution than to come to reasonable terms with Putin.

There are two factors to this: America legalizing export of its strategic reserves, which this event triggered into motion, and both sides building ports capable of loading/unloading liquified gas. Not sure how far the plans are on the Murcan side, but the Polish terminal in Świnoujście was already meant to be operable. Current ETA is 2 years, iirc. It should have enough capacity to feed a few countries and the original plan was to unload Quatari gas.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA. ROFLMAO. So you're telling me that the EU, which doesn't mind Turks violating its maritime and air borders EVERY DAY, which couldn't solve a dispute over a bunch of fucking rocks without the US mediation, and which doesn't even mind having the territory of one of its members formally under foreign occupation, will suddenly man up and collectively send its "elite troops" to draw first blood in a foreign country which isn't even a EU member (N.B., not a single shot was fired -yet- from Russians against Ukrainian forces, another smart move by Putin). GTFO, you're killing me.

Yeah, uh. You see, I wasn't talking about NATO, you know? Those squabbles exist exactly because both the countries are NATO members and Murca just calms both sides with military donations. Also such uneasy truces where both countries provoking each other are status quo are fairly common throughout the world. Also who says Greece would be a member country, heh. If anything, the problems you mention would lead to problematic countries being singled out. This is nothing to spring to motion next year, mind you, this is to be a decade long process.

Great way of giving Tovarisch Putin a good excuse to seize control of even larger parts of Ukraine, or even all of it, if the current "government" and the West can't keep its bloodhounds/thugs/agents under control. After all, Putin would then be acting ALSO in the interests of the West, since Europe would then lose yet another source of oil ;-)

Yarosh is a fascist and a rabid dog. If he were to gain any serious lasting influence, then it's truly time to cut a deal with Russia instead, heh.

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dew said:

This is totally backwards. It's Russia that's losing money faster over this dispute, they would find themselves destabilized much faster


This is clearly an attrition contest, we'll just have to wait and see who will really "lose" in the long term. Has the EU stopped buying Russian gas and oil so far? Nope it hasn't. It can't put sanctions against everybody and the cat, either (e.g. Iran), and depend 100% on US and Saudi tankers, or Turkish pipelines. That would be just as bad a strategic cul-de-sac as being entirely dependent on Russia.

dew said:

not to mention they're still greatly indebted to the US and that crazy Putin's aide who indicated Russia might stop paying their debts was quickly silenced.


Doesn't mean it's out of the game, though. Plus, as you said, there's China to take into consideration, which can do some pretty nasty stuff, with the US bonds, outstananding credits to the US and USD reserves it has. Plus, I believe that at some point some powerful nation (with nukes) will say "fuck all this phony debt system that's poisoning the people of the world" and repudiate debt by force (or rather, with a "come and get it" attitude). It wouldn't be the first time, either (Bolschevik's foreign debt repudiation).

dew said:

When it comes to economic starvation, the rich West still holds the trumph cards. Well, at least when it doesn't concern China, then the West should better tread lightly (as it is).


Which "rich West" exactly? The US? OK, I can understand that, militarily untouchable due to distance on their own continent, and self-reliant (?) when it comes to Energy. But Europe has to come to terms with Russia, or ask for Uncle Sam's intervention and protection once more. They are just too dependent, which explains why the "severe sanctions" they proposed so far will at most affect a few oligarchs' wives and girlfriends ability to shop at Harrods :-) Let alone that the EU has exactly zero weight foreign policy: when it comes to such matters, it's every nation for itself, though there might be a common guideline.

dew said:

There are two factors to this: America legalizing export of its strategic reserves, which this event triggered into motion, and both sides building ports capable of loading/unloading liquified gas. Not sure how far the plans are on the Murcan side, but the Polish terminal in Świnoujście was already meant to be operable. Current ETA is 2 years, iirc. It should have enough capacity to feed a few countries and the original plan was to unload Quatari gas.


AFAIK, shale gas extraction is expected to account for the 30% of the US's own needs in 10 years. How much of that will go to Europe? And at what price? Will need overcome "EU patriotism"? Will Frau Merkel instruct everybody to buy the overpriced US "freedom gas" rather than deal directly with the "stinking Ivans"? Economic pragmatism will have to prevail over a bubblegun & spit "economic union" and its weak institutions. Unless the EU will be a total and offical satellite to the US by then....if it's not already. In any case, life will be harder for the little guy, on either side of the Eurasian continent.

dew said:

Yeah, uh. You see, I wasn't talking about NATO, you know? Those squabbles exist exactly because both the countries are NATO members and Murca just calms both sides with military donations.


Hummmm. Greece is a member of the EU and NATO (so far). Cyprus is a member of the EU, but not of NATO. Therefore, it's the EU's airspace and water borders that are being violated by Turkey (not in the EU, but it is a NATO power). I understand that there are much more complex geopolitical games at stake here (including the USA and Israel, among others), but that just goes to show you how powerless and hopeless any "Euroarmy" would be. It simply cannot compete with the "big dogs" in the world's chessboard.

dew said:

Also such uneasy truces where both countries provoking each other are status quo are fairly common throughout the world. Also who says Greece would be a member country, heh. If anything, the problems you mention would lead to problematic countries being singled out. This is nothing to spring to motion next year, mind you, this is to be a decade long process.


The Greek-Turkish relations is a much more complex, ongoing chapter of geopolitics also involving bigger players, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it here. But it also just goes to show you how insignificant the EU is, compared to what it's going on at its doorstep.

dew said:

Yarosh is a fascist and a rabid dog. If he were to gain any serious lasting influence, then it's truly time to cut a deal with Russia instead, heh.


Who knows...80 years ago some people thought that a Hitler today may be preferable to a Stalin tomorrow. And so far the EU and USA seems to accept many new "Hitlers" where this is convenient. In contrast, the leader of the Greek "fascist" party Golden Dawn, Nikolaos Mihaloliakos is currently imprisoned, effectively kept in conditions of political prisony, after being "shocked and awed in legality" (sic) in order to politically vanquish his party (which BTW received 7.8% of the votes, and is estimated to be beyond 20% now), after pretty much direct orders from Bruxelles to "suppress fascist elements". So that means that there are "good fascists" and "bad fascists" too.

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Maes said:

So that means that there are "good fascists" and "bad fascists" too.

Good or bad anything these days boils down simply to whether or not, or to what degree, one is aligned with the powers that be.

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Well, this is it! My grandma is partying with all of her friends and neighbors in Simferopol.
My whole family is celebrating the victory of Crimea over the greed of the illegitimate thugs and the scheming blackmailing west.
My parents will finally be able to relax and sleep at night after two weeks of stress.

And we're laughing at Kerry and McCain for being such morons.... Did they seriously think that the Russian Empire would be afraid of their "economic sanctions"? Were they really stupid enough to think so?
We've already survived economic blockades in the 1950ies and 1960ies where we built our own technology without relying on foreign products and made history by sending the first man into space!
Foolish American senators can cry us a river. They don't know who they're messing with.

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Lol, are you actually implying that Russia is burgeoning with economic opportunity right now and is, in fact, not a demographically aging and disillusioned country?

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188DarkRevived said:

My whole family is celebrating the victory of Crimea over the greed of the illegitimate thugs and the scheming blackmailing west.

Yes! Have fun with the illegitimate thugs of the scheming blackmailing east instead! SO DIFFERENT

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188DarkRevived said:

We've already survived economic blockades in the 1950ies and 1960ies where we built our own technology without relying on foreign products and made history by sending the first man into space!

Your own technology? The nuke was stolen from Americans. The foundations of the rocket industry were built by captured Nazi scientists in both West and East. And for crying out loud, the Soviet Union was a FUCKING LEECH that survived the 50s and 60s, because it sucked dry all of the satellite nations, all of which were much more developed than that goddamn "Empire". As a person born in Czechoslovakia, your pride is downright insulting to me. Because of the Soviet Union, we went from one of the most developed and rich countries in the world (7th before the WW2!) to just another struggling, lazy and sick communist regime.

I can respect you being proud of your motherland, but please don't feed me disgusting and insulting bullshit that recolours history to whatever makes you feel the best.

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I'll celebrate myself by gulping down some "Nikola" kvass and a shot of Vodka, toasting to Tovarisch Putin's success ;-) Tovarisch Putin, dasvidaniya! (Hey, zounds much better than hafing to zay "Heil Merkel!" everyday für the next 50 jahre!)

TheCupboard said:

Lol, are you actually implying that Russia is burgeoning with economic opportunity right now and is, in fact, not a demographically aging and disillusioned country?


Hey, for one, Moscow salaries are equal or better than Greece's. Then again, so are Sofia's...of course, the people of West Ukraine are free to learn their German and become indentured servants for Frau Merkel for 100-150 Euro a month for life, while they watch the East prosper and grow thanks to Putin's Rubles.

Speaking of Sofia, Bulgaria seems to be the first one to wise up and not apply sanctions just because Europasführerin Merkel said so.

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Maes said:

Hey, for one, Moscow salaries are equal or better than Greece's. Then again, so are Sofia's...of course, the people of West Ukraine are free to learn their German and become indentured servants for Frau Merkel for 100-150 Euro a month for life, while they watch the East prosper and grow thanks to Putin's Rubles.

So what you're saying is that the urban areas have bigger salaries. Welcome to the world, Maes. Russia is a shithole when you apply that to the whole country.

Speaking of Sofia, Bulgaria seems to be the first one to wise up and not apply sanctions just because Europasführerin Merkel said so.

Wrong. Britain was by far the first that announced they wouldn't be joining any EU-declared wide sanctions. Doesn't seem like Cameron belongs to your Putin-adoring picture quite that much, eh? Also "dasvidanya" means "farewell". You probably wanted to say "nazdarovye".

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dew said:

Also "dasvidanya" means "farewell". You probably wanted to say "nazdarovye".


Heh, I was going by having this stuck in my mind, while I should have gone with this instead...but thanks for the correction anyway ;-) Well, you could say the West says farewell to Putin then (after he gets what he wants, of course). Let them go live their lives with their newfound Western friends (?) and allies (?), and let the Crimea (and soon after, the East) live their own, with their own kin. Meet again in 10 years, and see who's doing better ;-)

But the bit about the salaries, I meant of course urban to urban comparisons. A software developer in Athens will not be paid significantly more than his Sofia or Moscow counterpart, while the cost of living (especially taxes) and buying power is obviously not the same.

dew said:

Wrong. Britain was by far the first that announced they wouldn't be joining any EU-declared wide sanctions.



OK, but Britain is Britain, and Bulgaria is Bulgaria. And such a statement carries a weight inversely proportional to the one making it, so to speak,

Once you take into account how much more staunchily anti-EU Britain is, and how little it needs Deutschland & Co., you will realize that Cameron making such statements was almost expected, and that Merkel couldn't really tell him squat for that.

But Bulgaria? It has adhered to the Euro (it's currently in the phase of having a pegged national currency, rather than opting out like the UK), and certainly could use all the help the EU could give it...and yet it didn't shy out from saying "Hey, maybe this whole "evil Ivans" story won't actually fly, and we'll be caught in the middle, hurting ourselves more than any of the big players will actually get hurt themselves".

Edit: Oh and BTW, Cameron seems to have made a face-heel turn on his initial stance, pretty much leading sanctions now, while Bulgaria's doubts are fresh off the press and happening as we speak, baby ;-)

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I would like to join DarkRevived in applauding the 95.5% yes vote to join Russia. Probably the most legitimate result that we could expect. xD

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I'm sure the referendum was just as legitimately democratic as Russia's political system is.

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fraggle said:

I'm sure the referendum was just as legitimately democratic as Russia's political system is.

We spoke with grandma on the phone today. She was voting from her own free will. she was not held at gunpoint by any soldiers.
The newspapers of the west are just typing any lie that they can think of in order to retain support of the political interest of the west.
But propaganda talks and the truth walks.

Go ahead McCain, go ahead Kerry, go ahead EU. Scorn us all you want. Since when should the entire planet agree with you? Why the hell should we feel guilty about protecting our own land? Hit us as hard as you can. Give us your best shot. Careful, you're going to snap your wrists and embarrass yourselves. :p

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188DarkRevived said:

We spoke with grandma on the phone today. She was voting from her own free will. she was not held at gunpoint by any soldiers.

And what about the Crimean Tatars, the original population of Crimea, so much oppressed by the Russians who removed them outside of the region, took over their homes and only allowed them back during "weak" Gorbachev's tenure? Are you saying those voted for joining Russia as well?

Go ahead McCain, go ahead Kerry, go ahead EU. Scorn us all you want. Since when should the entire planet agree with you? Why the hell should we feel guilty about protecting our own land? Hit us as hard as you can. Give us your best shot. Careful, you're going to snap your wrists and embarrass yourselves. :p

And all this you write from where? Canadia, where the corrupt disgusting imperialist regime feeds the traitors of your family clan who ran from the glorious motherland?

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dew said:

And what about the Crimean Tatars, the original population of Crimea, so much oppressed by the Russians who removed them outside of the region, took over their homes and only allowed them back during "weak" Gorbachev's tenure? Are you saying those voted for joining Russia as well?

They were allowed to vote for whatever they wanted.
You see, since my family is fluent in up to 4 languages, we have a wide library of news sources.
We can hear multiple versions of the same story and make comparisons.
And trust me, tatars were allowed to vote for what they wanted.

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188DarkRevived said:

We spoke with grandma on the phone today. She was voting from her own free will. she was not held at gunpoint by any soldiers.

Even if the referendum was legitimate, it's the last truly democratic vote she'll ever be making.

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fraggle said:

Even if the referendum was legitimate, it's the last truly democratic vote she'll ever be making.

She would most likely be reunited with me in Canada within the next year or so.
So that might indeed have been her last vote.
Nonetheless, we still have friends there. Well, my mom and dad do anyways.

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188DarkRevived said:

She would most likely be reunited with me in Canada within the next year or so.

You meant to say you were moving back to glorious Russia to be with her, right? All your dreams came true, so why stay in the belly of the corrupt beast? Mr. Putin can take care of you now.

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188DarkRevived said:

She would most likely be reunited with me in Canada within the next year or so.
So that might indeed have been her last vote.

Obviously not what I was referring to.

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OK, very interesting. I didn't want to post here before because this whole situation is beyond me.

Now, what happened with this so-called referendum? Does this means that Crimea now is part of Russia? I mean, I know this doesn't happen instantly, but having something like 95% voting for it, it seems like the more realistic outcome, right?

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fraggle said:

Even if the referendum was legitimate, it's the last truly democratic vote she'll ever be making.

Well, it wasn't a secret ballot vote (you could see what boxes were ticked on the ballots in the urns) and there were Russian militiamen in each voting bureau.

This is a good starting point for making things legitimate.

Also, the national media in Crimea had been taken over by militiamen too, and only Russian-speaking journalists were allowed to keep broadcasting. So the propaganda machine worked full steam ahead.

There actually were attempts at pro-Ukraine demonstrations in Crimea, but they got repressed by Russian militiamen. (Mostly Cossacks.) Sure, it wasn't the Russian military...

Finally, both possible results of the referendum were pretty much the same. It was a choice between joining Russia directly, or joining Russia as a satellite nation.

Now we'll get an exciting period of political purge where the small minority that was against joining Russia gets disappeared.

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