Mubarak refuses to quit, Mubarak quits

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12438355

Yeah, so I guess the military is stepping in until elections in September, unless they decide to change the date or something. Thoughts?

Inside job with the military, something more to the story here. In any case this is clear evidence of the masses trumping the machine. Freedom prevailed...For now.

Radon said:

Inside job with the military

No I think the job's pretty well seen and proudly displayed.

We know Egypt will not start anything with Israel, so before anyone goes that route, let's go ahead and cut the bridge.

I mean in the fact that it's been silenced for 30 years, then suddenly the crowd erupts. Lets just take a look at another view here, most likely the military itself fueled and insisted the riots. I'm not saying they SPARKED the event but rather kept the fire alive, diplomatic power has now been turned over to them and maybe eventually the people. Or they won't give up that power, or they'll elect another thief or a crook. aka - Politician.

Radon said:

Or they won't give up that power, or they'll elect another thief or a crook. aka - Politician.

And risk more of what we saw for 18 days? The military and the Government of Egypt have been very very oil-and-water, but I don't think evil motives or conspiracy is at play here.


Some are saying that Wikileaks may have started some of this. Of course you can never say that explicitly, but it probably was one of many things that finally started the fire.

The best way I can say is that there exists a thing called the "Fear barrier". Basically in riot-speak, that's the "comfort zone". When you're pissed off enough, and I mean -- enough-- fear is thrown out the window and shit hits the fan. This is what happened here.

The best thing about the fear barrier is that it's not an individualistic thing. It's more of a domino effect. It's a "Diffuse crowd", in that a group spontaneously forms that shares one common anger, but no actual set goal. leaders seem to form from nowhere, and things go from there.

It's really quite fascinating to watch. These riots across europe and the middle east are very interesting, in that technology was used immensely in organizing a lot of this. Think of it as Anonymous if they didn't just sit on their chairs with their wangs in their hand firing the Low-Orbit Ion Cannon at Subeta or Visa.

Well I didn't want to veer my suggestion towards the "evil conspiracy" route. Just sayin' the ignition of this event is still unknown, we've heard the report of one facebook activist starting it another is Wikileaks. It's quite the odd parameter here, it just..started over night taking 3 other countries down the same route.

They won't risk another 18 years, i'm sure if some Biff gets elected and tries to fuck around than they'll just rise up once again.

I believe the military DID support the people here, they helped them and did not open fire or even attack despite orders and despite planted Ops trying to stir up dismay to have the excuse to use force.

In any case, it's relaxing to witness the little people still do have the power, not the suits.

Radon said:

In any case, it's relaxing to witness the little people still do have the power, not the suits.

You're seeing what makes humans so awesome: Endurance under intense anger. Humans never seem to forget their targets. They might not have a plan, or a real concrete reason (other than "I'm pissed") but they will have a target and will chase it down until it can't take it any more.

1 Country down, rest of the world to go.

Csonicgo said:

Some are saying that Wikileaks may have started some of this. Of course you can never say that explicitly, but it probably was one of many things that finally started the fire.

A big part is also that the Jasmin Revolution in Tunisia was successful. "If it worked there, why not here, too?", thought the Egyptians. A good illustration: Egypt isn't a French-speaking country. Tunisia is. What did we see in the crowd? Among a lot of other things, this:


The Arab* world was before the prey to a sort of fatalistic defeatism, which could be summed up this way: "all our countries have despotic and corrupt governments, so let's not get our hopes up for any improvement here". The failure of Iran's Green Movement went in that direction too, as did Bush Jr.'s Iraq War ("Americans think we can only have a democracy when we're occupied by foreign powers").

And then Tunisia showed them that it could actually work. The people could win over the dictator. This rekindled hope. Other countries, notably Yemen, are probably going this way too.

(* It's a big generalization to call it the Arab world since not all these populations are actually Arabic.)

People can win over the dictator when the military doesn't feel like firing into crowds.

Not to speak about Mubarak's nephew...

Radon said:

In any case, it's relaxing to witness the little people still do have the power, not the suits.

They did have to sacrifice a lot, namely their lives, in order to accomplish this. It's not like one random citizen has the same power that one official dictator does. Just sayin'. You're right in the sense that the suits have a foundation which is the citizens they rule over, and if they rebel in a united fashion then the suits are fucked.

As awesome as this is, the now what? part is next. Setting up a new government is not going to be easy.

This was a controlled, soft landing for Mubarak, surely not a violent overthrowing with crash and burn. Didn't Obama, among others, vouch for a "dignified deposition"? As of now, Mubarak is in his house at Sharm El Sheik with little personal repercussions. It's as if Hitler was allowed to retire to Bechtesgaden and watch the allies and the transitory governments take over.

As for the military....only time will tell. Don't forget that Mubarak put the current military leaders in their positions, and that he came from the Air Force ranks too. If Egypt wasn't a strategic US ally (does the fact that they have 900+ pure-blooded American A1M1 Abrahams tanks ring a bell? The US doesn't exactly sell them to anyone) I doubt Mubarak would have it that easy.

In some ways, it reminds me of how the transition from a military dictatorship to a parliamentary dictatorship worked here in Greece: the military junta started and ended only after the US said so, and the reasons for starting it and later, ending it, were purely political and externally driven.

So these riots are done for now? I hope the Cairo Museum is alright. All those artifacts...

magicsofa said:

As awesome as this is, the now what? part is next. Setting up a new government is not going to be easy.

I'm greatly concerned for the fact that - at least in so far as I'm aware - Egypt has absolutely no history with democracy. It's probably not an exceptional circumstance considering many other countries in the third world and middle east that share a similar political history, sure, but despite being an otherwise textbook revolution I'd be interested to see how this one pans out.

One thing to keep in mind is that Egypt and Tunisia both are countries were the population is generally well educated and connected to the rest of the world (huge tourist industry). They knew they could have better than what they had. So there is indeed what is needed there for democracy to flourish...

On the other hand, the revolution in both these countries started not so much because they were fed up with corrupt dictators using police forces as a tool of oppression, but because, western governments please take note, they were fed up with their rapidly-shrinking buying power and with skyrocketing unemployment rates meaning that young people were getting nice diplomas only to become hobos.

Gez said:

On the other hand, the revolution in both these countries started not so much because they were fed up with corrupt dictators using police forces as a tool of oppression, but because, western governments please take note, they were fed up with their rapidly-shrinking buying power and with skyrocketing unemployment rates meaning that young people were getting nice diplomas only to become hobos.

These exact same circumstances start appearing even in many European countries, fueled by the ongoing debt crisis, and there are increasing episodes of police oppresion and brutality. However dissent and unrest manifests itself differently, for now, mostly through "civil disobbedience" and work/trade union reactions. But as of now, e.g. in Greece the only professionals who can consider their asses safe are politicians, priests and cops, and in general whoever has a job involving controlling/dominating others. Nice going, huh?

Don't forget bankers! After the thorough ass-raping Goldman-Sachs gave your country, you really shouldn't forget them. It's so nice to see how EU countries (such as Ireland) are always so happy to tax (its middle-and-lower-class citizens but not foreign corporations that put some headquarters there) and cut (social services and welfare) so as to give all the money raised and saved to those who really deserve it: the banks that completely screwed up and wasted their customers' money in bubbles and junk bonds. Just think: you get to spend other people's money to get rich, until you drive your company to bankruptcy, then you get a massive influx of yet more money from other people, and you've got the government's blessing to allocate all that bailout money to your personal bonus for a job well done. Man, it feels good to be a bankster!

Gez said:

Man, it feels good to be a bankster!

Well, you mean the owners and high level executives. Working at a bank as a dependent worker of any rank is just as bad as any other private sector job.

I'm reminded of the Shah of Iran with this.

bytor said:

I'm reminded of the Shah of Iran with this.

Sadly it has more commonalities with Greece, which was an US ally both before, during and after the recent dictatorship. Iran transitioned from an US-friendly to an openly anti-US regime, nothing to do with what is happening to Egypt (and yeah, that's the essence of modern politics. Either with them or against them).

The consequences of that will be obvious: just like us, they won't truly have a democratic system where vote reversal and massive loss of votes for a former ruling party can occur, and a privileged class of party-affiliated people will emerge, with all the associated client and pork barrel politics. It will just be a slightly better ground for foreign investments and nothing more.

Maes said:

Sadly it has more commonalities with Greece, which was an US ally both before, during and after the recent dictatorship. Iran transitioned from an US-friendly to an openly anti-US regime, nothing to do with what is happening to Egypt (and yeah, that's the essence of modern politics. Either with them or against them).

The consequences of that will be obvious: just like us, they won't truly have a democratic system where vote reversal and massive loss of votes for a former ruling party can occur, and a privileged class of party-affiliated people will emerge, with all the associated client and pork barrel politics. It will just be a slightly better ground for foreign investments and nothing more.

So you're saying that pretty much every small country in the world is unable to flourish and be democratic without the US helping it along? Or rather if the US takes an interest in a smaller country, or even nudges it along in any way, that they automatically must bow to every American interest? I am unable to see the correlation between what is happening right now in Egypt and some irrefutable proof that they will somehow become vassals of the US. There are plenty of countries the US associates with without shoving a CIA approved dictator in there.

Shaikoten said:

So you're saying that pretty much every small country in the world is unable to flourish and be democratic without the US helping it along?

It surely doesn't help much NOT being on their "good" list. Even ignoring them and not doing them favours like e.g. allowing them to build bases, military overflights and in general going your own merry way without acknowledging that they exist and are special, will result in disaster sooner or later. One word: Yugoslavia. Two words: Belgrade Bombings. Even worse, they have the nerve to tell their victims "You had it coming".

Shaikoten said:

Or rather if the US takes an interest in a smaller country, or even nudges it along in any way, that they automatically must bow to every American interest?

Some, like Albania and many former Soviet republics, do just that. Actually, they go out of their way to prove that they are 100% pro-US and the servilism and wanna-beism they exhibit can be really disgusting. Compare "New Europe" vs "Old Europe" in diplomatic speech. In exchange, the US provides them with diplomatic backing for thorny things like FYROM, Kossovo, UCK etc. Ugly stuff.

A few, like Israel, have a pretty one-sided beneficiary relationship with the US, leeching resources from them giving nothing in return, but they are the exception.

The few small countries that thought that they could thrive without US "help" or "protection" (or anybody's, for that matter) paid a high price, and not because the US didn't bring them their super awesome Democracy & Freedom, but because they were regarded as thorns in the sides of geopolitics. Ugly stuff, again.

So yeah, either you're with them or against them.

Shaikoten said:

I am unable to see the correlation between what is happening right now in Egypt and some irrefutable proof that they will somehow become vassals of the US.

The previous regime was already US-friendly to the bone, and the new one wouldn't be able to graciously step in without the US's green light and least concern, so nothing will change under the hood for Egypt, which will continue to be a US vassal as it already was, at least after the 1973 war. Also, Mubarak wouldn't receive such a silk-gloved treatment. Compare him with how e.g. Noriega or Milosevic were treated.

Shaikoten said:

There are plenty of countries the US associates with without shoving a CIA approved dictator in there.

Worse, they shove US controlled and dangerous "democratic" dumbasses like him.

How about Costa Rica, one of the most peaceful, truly democratic countries in the world, also big enough to fit on a postage stamp. They're friendly to the US, but don't spend all day sucking it off.

How about any rising country in new South American socialist bloc? They pretty much spit in the US's face and have rising GDP, falling unemployment, and have kicked American business out of their country.

You know what I think? Eastern Europe is so concerned with your thousand year old problems of ethnicity and marginally different cultures and your shitty little religions that you will all be so busy buttfucking each other for the foreseeable future and you will be too weak and pathetic to break free from being America's plaything. Maybe if people from these countries cooperated instead of being concerned about who is a Slav and who is a Muslim and who is Greek and who is Turkish their countries wouldn't be such massive shitholes.

Shaikoten said:

You know what I think? Eastern Europe is so concerned with your thousand year old problems of ethnicity and marginally different cultures and your shitty little religions that you will all be so busy buttfucking each other for the foreseeable future and you will be too weak and pathetic to break free from being America's plaything. Maybe if people from these countries cooperated instead of being concerned about who is a Slav and who is a Muslim and who is Greek and who is Turkish their countries wouldn't be such massive shitholes.

Nailed it. Almost all of Europe was like this at one time. I never got the tribal mentality at all.

Shaikoten said:

How about any rising country in new South American socialist bloc? They pretty much spit in the US's face and have rising GDP, falling unemployment, and have kicked American business out of their country.

They only get away with it because America has overextended its forces with two prolonged occupation/peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. If the USA had their hands free, you just know what would happen.

Shaikoten said:

How about Costa Rica, one of the most peaceful, truly democratic countries in the world, also big enough to fit on a postage stamp. They're friendly to the US, but don't spend all day sucking it off.

Guess what, they might actually do just that . That's exactly the only kind of "small country" that the US likes: dependent, harmless, politically indifferent, weak, and servile. Not all people and nations are like this though.

Shaikoten said:

How about any rising country in new South American socialist bloc? They pretty much spit in the US's face and have rising GDP, falling unemployment, and have kicked American business out of their country.

That "business" got there due to occupations, aggressive foreign policies and CIA sockpuppeting. They view the US as a cause of pain, misery and suffering, no wonder they want it out. Sure, there are always a few of the South American elite that are staunchily pro-American, but their set of problems and interests hardly matches that of the average citizen in any of these countries. I.e. only the military, police, agents and shills are pro-USA there, and pretty much everywhere.

Shaikoten said:

You know what I think? Eastern Europe is so concerned with your thousand year old problems of ethnicity and marginally different cultures

Might be, but these pre-date the US by several millenia :-p
And I don't get what they have to do with the conversation at hand or being a pro-USA shil/straw man or not. As if by just embracing the US policies in the region, we will all become like the people of walmart, drive big gas-guzzlers and weigh 500 pounds.

The sad thing is that some people actually believe this crap, and think that since in the USA everything is Bigger and Better! (TM) then if they believe in the USA strongly enough, their dick will become Bigger and Better! (TM) too...or something.

And you sounded like a butthurt shill trying to push this low-level, low-life propaganda that can only appeal to the most desperate but failing miserably :-p

Wanna buy me off? Gimme a million $$$ and I'll even vote Republican and become a Born Again Christian ;-)

Gez said:

They only get away with it because America has overextended its forces with two prolonged occupation/peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. If the USA had their hands free, you just know what would happen.

Not if the Chinese pull the plug on the US national debt they own ;-) Saw the recent Hu Jintao visit at the White House? The yanks were all heel-clacking and about-facing at the communist leader who holds their economy by the balls. That would have never happened in the time where the US could pull stunts like the above off.

Gez said:

They only get away with it because America has overextended its forces with two prolonged occupation/peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. If the USA had their hands free, you just know what would happen.

I can post links too! The CIA and US Military can fuck up too!

Maes said:

And you sounded like a butthurt shill trying to push this low-level, low-life propaganda that can only appeal to the most desperate but failing miserably :-p

Despite your attempts at misdirection you're failing to address what we're actually talking about here. I'm sorry I used mean nasty words about your ethnic squabbles, sorry you couldn't see around them and get to the real argument here. The phrase "dependent, harmless, weak, and servile," perhaps sans the "politically indifferent" part applies wholly to Greece, and every hollow government who is currently at the whim of the U.S. Now you might look at my argument and think, "hey this is some 'conservative' who thinks the US is entitled to rape every other country because they're strong." But let me be perfectly clear. It doesn't bring me any joy to watch your country bent over like this. Morally, of course, it's abhorrent. But when is diplomacy ever about morals? With their actions, all of these Eastern countries have essentially decided that they will be weak and rely on American help. I'm not cheering "USA, USA!" while swilling Bud and watching NASCAR, I'm telling you that all of this Balkan shit you're whining about NO ONE CARES ABOUT.

The Eastern European countries you reference are apparently incapable of unifying in any meaningful way. They NEED American help, because they don't have anything significantly going for them individually, and they're too stubborn to ally with each other, or anyone else on any meaningful level. Think the Ruskies would treat you any better? Or the Chinese? But you are projecting the impotence of your region on the rest of the world, assuming somehow that Egypt and every other nation is doomed to fall to the same fate. Will the US make a pass at securing power in Egypt? Probably. Will they succeed? Not necessarily.

(@Maes)

HERP DERP

I really don't see what your problem is with anything here aside from the fact that you hate the USA for some reason. Wait, I guess you're right. Whenever the US interferes with foreign policy, everything goes downhill. Just look at Japan, for instance.

@Danarcy: or Israel, for that matter. In fact I said that if you just happen to be among the lucky few that can benefit almost unilaterally from the USA, good for you. But in a henhouse, not everybody can be the rooster. I don't hate the USA, but it couldn't be more like Canada?

@Shaikoten: you're viewing everything through a federative distortion lens or something, at least that's what I get when I see all that talk about "allying", "unifying" etc. Plus you're trying the old "YOU NEED THE USA!!!" card for some reason. Are you in the military or a Halliburton merc? WTF man, is your last name McCarthy?

There were, and are, examples of countries that proliferate quite well without being part of an USA-like federation. Switzerland (despite their internal federative organization), the Nederlands, Scandinavian countries etc. come to mind. They do just fine without the USA, and with an organizational model that couldn't be farther.

Really, look no farther than your own northern border: it's called Canada.

And Costa Rica is just a miserable island nation with a colonialist past, whose only possible relation with the USA or the rest of the world can be tourism, sexual or otherwise. Of course they are politically indifferent compared to Greece, whose position has doomed it to millenia of geopolitical games and wars, even in the modern eram and it's still ongoing. Ah right but they were not an US State....that kinda makes it all void, right?

Shaikoten said:

But you are projecting the impotence of your region on the rest of the world, assuming somehow that Egypt and every other nation is doomed to fall to the same fate.

Pure bullshit, you weasly manipulator. When did I say that? Quote or it didn't happen. All I said is that, in a nutshell, nothing will change. They will "transition" from an US-endorsed dictator (Mubarak) to an US-tolerated Junta, which could stay in power virtually forever, with the tolerance of the whole Western world, which somehow resembled what happened in Greece after WW II, in what was perhaps the worst case of US/CIA/MI6 manipulation in a non-Latin American country for decades. They are not doomed: they were already in it, and so they will stay.

P.S. Did I mention how cooler Canada is than the USA? ;-)