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[McD] James

No-Deal Brexit looking increasingly more likely

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2 hours ago, rodster said:

Woah, what's going on here? :) Let's get back to the core:

 

Britain's made a referendum.

 

They voted to leave EU.

 

It's a democratically legit vote.

 

EU obviously doesn't want Britain to leave. 

 

For some reason I didn't understand, the negotiations are still going on. 

 

For all the other countries... as you can see, never join EU. EU is like the abusive partner in a relationship which will even go as far as lock you in the basement so that you can't leave. Acting like they don't like you but deep down they love you, thus making way for a hurtful relationship, physically and emotionally. 

 

 

Let's address all these points because they are completely wrong.

 

First: yes, there was a referendum. It was consultative (not binding) however, because in the UK, it is Parliament that is sovereign, not the people. There are issues that can be raised about the democratic value of that vote, since it only applied to a subset of British citizens that are going to be affected. First, British overseas citizens (except for those from Gibraltar) were not allowed to vote, even though overseas territories of European Union member countries have various benefits (development subsidies, market access, etc.) that they are going to lose. Read up on OCTA. Places like the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, or Gibraltar were specialized in being tax havens for banks and insurance services, something made possible for them by not having any barrier to their access to the European service market. Likewise for the Crown Dependencies (Isle of Man, Channel Islands) which had special agreements with the EU that will cease to apply after Brexit. Secondly, British citizens that are long-time residents of another country are also barred from voting. So that gives you two categories of British citizens that were likely to vote Remain but couldn't vote. Of course you can counter that they wouldn't have been numerous enough to tilt the balance anyway.

 

Furthermore, there were irregularities in the referendum campaign. We know that the Leave campaign broke the law. We also know that they lied their ass off. Do you still believe the NHS is going to get an extra £350 million per week?

 

Now that the EU doesn't want the RU to leave. Yes, it was true. It's a lot less true now. Patience is running thin. And you can see it in the jokes officials are making about the situation.

Quote

“He wakes me up every morning meowing to death because he wants to go out, and then when I open the door he stays put, undecided, and then glares at me when I put him out,” Ms Loiseau said.

 

You see, back in March, as the 29th March deadline was approaching, May asked for an extension period up to June 30. This was a demand of the Government of the UK; not a demand of the EU. The EU granted an extension only up to the 12th of April. Let's be clear here: the UK asked for a three-month delay, the EU reluctantly gave two weeks. Does it really look to you like the EU is preventing the UK from leaving?

 

It's the UK who is acting like an abusive partner here, threatening to leave but then refusing to do so. The two-week reprieve is already halfway over, and May is going to ask for another extension up to June, arguing that she's gonna try negotiating with her opposition this time. Hopefully she'll be told she should have done so two years ago and the April 12 date will be maintained, so that the UK will be put outside and free to glare at Europe as much as it wants to, but it mewed to get out and now the door is closed.

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Just adding a bit more detail to Gez's points, the referendum result was not legally binding, however after the vote of activating Article 50 was passed by a majority of 384 MP's and the Queen signed it off, then it became law. So by law the UK would leave the EU on march 29th regardless of no deal/deals. This is actually a point still being contested as we might of actually left already.

 

2nd point, the remain campaign was so shockingly run that more people listened to Chancellor Merkel than they did anyone in this country, we also had President Obama telling the British people that we would be "back of the queue". The leave campaign on the same note, over spent and did waffle some utter shite as well and let's not forget the Russians! However since Article 50 was passed with an overwhelming majority it's all abit of a moot point, although I'm sure it will be argued for many years to come.

 

So why are will still here? With the house of commons voting to start Article 50, the negotiations started and ended in a deal backed by all the remaining countries of the EU, however it was not well received by Brexiteers as it was abit one sided (like a divorce, where one partner is leaving the other for non neutral reasons) and remain MP's didn't like it either. The Irish backstop being a point of agony although it might not even be used.

 

So, we have the Labour party demanding that we stay in the customs union and won't back the government unless that happens (although it is said that this is a tactical play to oust the tories and get into power themselves). The SNP and Lib dems are against leaving and so will vote down everything and the Tories who are slightly less divided than they were but still have some hard ass Brexiteers that refuse to budge and the DUP...

 

 So just a complete load of utter bollocks basically.

   

Edited by Liberation

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The biggest problem with how the British side managed it all is that they started the exit process before settling with themselves what they wanted it to be. There was May's laughable "Brexit means Brexit" which doesn't answer any question. Here's an old video.

 

 

The EU is absolutely not monolithic, it's a very complex amalgam of a lot of various international treaties and agreements. And the UK never stopped to think about how many bridges it wanted to burn actually. There are the maximalists, those currently pushing for a no-deal exit, that want to have absolutely nothing in common anymore. And then they're pissed when they learn it means they'll lose access to Galileo sats or Europol databases. Duh. Then there are the ones who just want to be halfway out the door but still part of some groups, like having a customs union or something. (BTW, customs union isn't a full-fledged free access to all markets with free movement and so on. Far from it.)

 

The Withdrawal Agreement was rejected three times by Parliament because it went too far for some and not far enough for others, and that's because Westminster never took the effort to come up with a consensus on what they wanted in the first place. Since they didn't come up with a consensus, they're just rejecting everything, even the stuff they came up with themselves. Westminster voted to vote on eight alternative propositions that came from MPs, and then they voted down every single one of them. Twice.

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Very good point Gez.

 

A consensus should have been sorted first ideally, especially after that dreadful GE result for the Tories but it wasn't and the stiff opposition to a Tory deal is clear for all to see.

 

If May's deal is brought back to the table again and pitted against no deal, I think will we see a result but other wise we are going to time out and leave. Another delay would be a waste of time imo, the different sides are to far apart for a compromise.

 

I think with both parties at the last GE being pro Brexit (and they were 100%) it created an illusion that things would just work out. May's deal covers a lot of the bits and bobs we would loose out on if we went no deal but failed badly when it came to the vote(s) and just to add to the confusion some people say May's deal is hard Brexit others say its surrender.

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On 4/5/2019 at 4:29 AM, Xcalibur said:

Trump is already maintaining trade ties with the UK, and has expressed willingness to substantially increase trade. he has every reason to, since as I said, Trumpism and Brexit have much in common, and could be allies of convenience against the EU and neoliberalism.

Take it from an American who rolls his eyes at seeing the pasty orange one on a daily basis when he looks at the news: Trump will only cut you a deal if it benefits Trump and fucks you. (Note that I said benefits Trump - it doesn't have to benefit America, either.)

 

For proof of this, see (among other things) all the farmers he's fucked over while renegotiating NAFTA who are starting to regret their vote, the auto plant that got shuttered a year after he claimed he saved their jobs because his steel tariffs drove it out of profitability, cutting aid to Central America that is more likely to create an influx of immigrants at our southern border (not less, like he thinks), and of course, THE WALL that won't actually stop jack shit because most of the smuggling is happening at ports and not from people walking across the border.

 

Please, don't rely on Trump to be a reliable trading partner. Wait until the next President takes over. You're literally better off trading with India or something.

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It's the final countdown this week.

 

 

 

Will Terri May play the Song of Time in Brussels this week?

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On 4/6/2019 at 8:25 AM, Dark Pulse said:

Take it from an American who rolls his eyes at seeing the pasty orange one on a daily basis when he looks at the news: Trump will only cut you a deal if it benefits Trump and fucks you. (Note that I said benefits Trump - it doesn't have to benefit America, either.)

 

For proof of this, see (among other things) all the farmers he's fucked over while renegotiating NAFTA who are starting to regret their vote, the auto plant that got shuttered a year after he claimed he saved their jobs because his steel tariffs drove it out of profitability, cutting aid to Central America that is more likely to create an influx of immigrants at our southern border (not less, like he thinks), and of course, THE WALL that won't actually stop jack shit because most of the smuggling is happening at ports and not from people walking across the border.

 

Please, don't rely on Trump to be a reliable trading partner. Wait until the next President takes over. You're literally better off trading with India or something.

 

Trump, as far as I've seen, is pro-US, although there are a number of constituencies with whom he doesn't get along.

 

trade deal/tariffs: I believe Trump is focused on mid-to-long term results. naturally, there will be frictions in the short term.

 

aid/central america: you're correct in pointing out that a decrease in aid would increase pressure to migrate. however, he's doing this as a punitive measure because those countries refuse to stop the caravans. of course, this ties in with the wall...

 

the wall: it's difficult to be certain how much smuggling is done via ports vs. the border. surely the ports play a role, but there's disagreement on what is really happening; partly that's due to the politically charged nature of the topic. in either case, the Wall would be an effective obstacle/deterrent to caravans marching across en masse.

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Stop hijacking the thread with completely unrealistic American power fantasies, ffs. By now you're defending brexit with praises of Trump the Saviour and your beliefs on how awesome he will eventually be. Take it elsewhere.

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1 hour ago, dew said:

Stop hijacking the thread with completely unrealistic American power fantasies, ffs. By now you're defending brexit with praises of Trump the Saviour and your beliefs on how awesome he will eventually be. Take it elsewhere.

 

I don't mean to derail, just wanted to give an adequate response to Mr. Pulse up there. keep in mind, Trump and Brexit are part of the same larger pattern. however, I agree that the focus should remain on Brexit, so I won't say any more.

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@Xcalibur It's quite apparent that Trump doesn't understand or care about America's global image, its economy, its people, or its constitution and laws. There isn't a longterm plan with him as you seem to think, as his opinions on complex issues are prone to spontaneously shift at a moment's notice. I know some of his supporters like to think there's some kind of a clever, longterm plan behind his ravings, but he's really not doing anything beyond acting out his pathologies, without the slightest hint of self-awareness. 

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On 4/6/2019 at 7:03 AM, Liberation said:

I think with both parties at the last GE being pro Brexit (and they were 100%)

No. They were both in favour of honouring the result of the referendum, and there's a big difference. Neither had any clear idea of how to proceed, or any firm belief that it was a beneficial course of action.

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That is one well kicked can, and a frantic road building project to stop that Brexit bus careering off the cliff.

I guess they hope that if the EU elections happen in the UK then it might prompt some movement one way or the other, but allows the UK to leave beforehand if the deal gets through the commons (This looks unlikely).

 

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At this point the whole thing is super-likely to be scrapped I'd bet. The can was well and truly kicked, but the pressure and stakes are so high now that if the squabbles continue, the only real reasonable solution is to either crash out hard (which there's not enough support for) or to maintain the status quo - i.e; revoke Article 50.

 

All this to protect the leftist guy from leading the country, huh? Sheesh. I thought the Republicans were bad here, but that's pretty lousy too.

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2 hours ago, cannonball said:

I guess they hope that if the EU elections happen in the UK then it might prompt some movement one way or the other

Yes, maybe the EU election in the UK will become a proxy referendum on how to resolve this mess - as long as the parties help make it that way. After all, it has bugger-all purpose otherwise. What fun. Maybe I'll bother organizing a postal vote for this one...

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The clowns and buffoons of British political scene will ensure that in 6 months we will be at exactly the same point as yesterday.

 

Here's a proposition on how to get things moving in exciting new directions. A second referendum. On Scottish independence.

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1 hour ago, dew said:

The clowns and buffoons of British political scene will ensure that in 6 months we will be at exactly the same point as yesterday.

 

Here's a proposition on how to get things moving in exciting new directions. A second referendum. On Scottish independence.

Nah, because they never believe that.

 

Scottish, Northern Irish, and Welsh all at the same time though... 

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