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Ajora

No-Deal Brexit looking increasingly more likely

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You'd think that with the GDP stagnating, businesses plummeting, and the value of the Pound decreasing since the 2016 referendum, that would have been enough to quell the rhetoric coming from UK Independence Party constituents who attempted to rationalize Brexit from a more pragmatic viewpoint (Sargon of Akkad being one example). Instead, Brexit supporters have only doubled down on their insistence that leaving the EU was a good idea and are pushing with increasing tenacity to leave the EU as quickly as possible. 

 

People don't seem to realize just how catastrophic a No-Deal Brexit would be for the UK's economy. Certain products would be incredibly difficult to import (including but not limited to food and lifesaving medicine), more businesses would cut ties with the UK, and Ireland's sectarian violence would become exacerbated. If a No-Deal Brexit becomes a reality, it's not hyperbolic to state that Europe could be headed towards an economic calamity.

 

edit: I'd like to correct myself on something. I was under the belief that Hard Brexit and No-Deal Brexit were the exact same thing, when in fact they are not. There are a lot more varieties of Brexit than one might expect. I don't know what a Medium Brexit is, nor do I know what a Red, White and Blue Brexit is, nor Doggy Brexit, nor Messy Brexit, nor Crème brûlée Brexit, nor Titantic Brexit, nor Damp Brexit, nor Donald Brexit. I swear I'm not making any of these up.  

Edited by Ajora

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British person here, I've basically stopped caring at this point. It's been three years of a dripping tap in the news, and the entire thing has become more and more ludicrous. Whatever the outcome of all of this, one day we will rarely hear the word brexit again, and I can't fucking wait.

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Lord Buckethead is a champion. I loved seeing him on Last Week Tonight just now. Admittedly, I didn't know who he was earlier today, but I'm certainly glad that I do now.

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Freedom to own firearms with bump stocks—that's all you need.

 

It's all fun and games until they start to push shit on the silent majority. 

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It is so hard to describe what is happening in the UK at the moment but I will give it a shot as I suspect the analogy is something many on here are aware of.

Essentially you know all those satirical/joke webpages where they make up humourous stories, consider a reality where those stories are actually reality. That is Brexit UK in a nutshell.

sorry Eris but we will be in our cold dead graves before Brexit stops being mentioned....

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It's very funny how Westminster is utterly unable to agree to anything. They voted on eight different propositions in a single evening -- propositions that they came up with themselves, and that ranged from "cancel Brexit altogether" to "no-deal brexit", and rejected every single of them. Yes, 400 MPs voted against no-deal Brexit, and then they voted for it when May asked them, for the third time, to ratify the withdrawal agreement.

 

Basically the problem, besides the voting procedures to be hopelessly ill-adapted to the situation (should go with the Condorcet method), is that the House of Commons seems to believe it is able to control things that are outside its control. Such as the relentless march of time, or the negotiating posture of the other 27 members of the EU, or even the fact that the ratio of power is not in their advantage (EU-27 is nearly 6 times the size of the UK by GDP, and 7 times by population).

 

So yeah, no-deal Brexit in two weeks. There will not be a further time extension, and the EU will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. No matter what the deluded fools who are against hard brexit but yet rejected the WA may think. (It's something else for those from the ERG who are consciously striving to reach no-deal Brexit. Congrats to them, they've won.)

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12 hours ago, Mr. Freeze said:

lmao nationalists 

 

9 hours ago, Flesh420 said:

Freedom to own firearms with bump stocks—that's all you need.

 

It's all fun and games until they start to push shit on the silent majority. 

 

Both of these posts left me with a big question mark above my head. Not that I need an explanation, just that they’re only tangentially related to the thread topic and neither of them seem to add all that much to the conversation.

 

But yeah, Brexit is probably one of the worst words ever made and the fact that we’ll be hearing it for years to come is just one more bullet point on the list of reasons to clock out from media consumption for a good long while. It’s fitting that such a huge non-solution was given a crap name though I guess.

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13 minutes ago, Doomkid said:

But yeah, Brexit is probably one of the worst words ever made and the fact that we’ll be hearing it for years to come is just one more bullet point on the list of reasons to clock out from media consumption for a good long while. It’s fitting that such a huge non-solution was given a crap name though I guess.

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30 minutes ago, Doomkid said:

 

 

Both of these posts left me with a big question mark above my head. Not that I need an explanation, just that they’re only tangentially related to the thread topic and neither of them seem to add all that much to the conversation.

 

But yeah, Brexit is probably one of the worst words ever made and the fact that we’ll be hearing it for years to come is just one more bullet point on the list of reasons to clock out from media consumption for a good long while. It’s fitting that such a huge non-solution was given a crap name though I guess.

 

I disagree on 2/3 of your points. I found Mr. Freeze's succinct comment to be apt. What I'm overwhelmingly hearing from Brexit supporters right now is "We don't care if there's a deal or not, we were promised Brexit, and we want out immediately. We don't care what the libtards are saying about the economy, because maintaining our national identity and keeping Muslims out of Britain is more important in the long run." I also sometimes post on the Shmups message board, and I copied over part of my post here to the Brexit thread going on there. Attempts to rationalize why this idea is profoundly stupid from an economic standpoint are met by the usual uncreative ad hominem attacks and the viewpoint that Britain's population becoming increasingly less white is the biggest threat of all. 

 

I'm not really sure what Flesh420 was trying to say.

 

As for the name Brexit itself, I have to admit that I actually kind of love the sound of it, even though what it entails is another story. Hearing Brexit makes me think of breakfast, and I love breakfast. And then I get to thinking about the prospects of eating either Crème brûlée or cake for breakfast, and the word becomes even more appealing. 

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7 minutes ago, Ajora said:

As for the name Brexit itself, I have to admit that I actually kind of love the sound of it, even though what it entails is another story. Hearing Brexit makes me think of breakfast, and I love breakfast. And then I get to thinking about the prospects of eating either Crème brûlée or cake for breakfast, and the word becomes even more appealing. 

Especially if you get a "Punch Nigel Farage in the face" mini-toy in every box.

 

Never, ever trust a man named Nigel.

 

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@Dark Pulse When I was watching Dr. Who yesterday there was one character by the name of John Ransome. Every time I saw him, I kept thinking that his name was actually Nigel, because he's got to be the most Nigel-looking bloke I've ever seen.

 

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22 minutes ago, Dark Pulse said:

Never, ever trust a man named Nigel.

What about Nigel Rowand?

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Why must a minority of easily manipulated assholes always ruin everything for everyone else

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The more I have delved into this the more depressing it gets, the official leave campaign dropped its appeal yesterday against the electoral commission effectively admitting it breached electoral law. Another leave campaign run by Aaron Banks is under investigation and meanwhile he is undertaking measures to try and deselect rebel Tory mps with the Beaconsfield MP losing a no confidence vote yesterday due to an influx of UKIP members led by the UKIP candidate who lost at the last general election.

A lot of language used by many people here could pretty much come from the dictatorship handbook “will of the people”, “traitors” “enemies of the people” to mention a few.

leave descriptions today is so different from what was touted by the leave campaigns three years ago but yet with the help of right wing mainstream press have someone made people believe that the version of Brexit they want now (no deal) is what they always wanted. 

I genuinely feel ashamed to be British and it is rather depressing to be honest. It might take decades to heal the divisions caused by this whole mess and frankly I am probably being optimistic about that.

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11 minutes ago, cannonball said:

The more I have delved into this the more depressing it gets, the official leave campaign dropped its appeal yesterday against the electoral commission effectively admitting it breached electoral law. Another leave campaign run by Aaron Banks is under investigation and meanwhile he is undertaking measures to try and deselect rebel Tory mps with the Beaconsfield MP losing a no confidence vote yesterday due to an influx of UKIP members led by the UKIP candidate who lost at the last general election.

A lot of language used by many people here could pretty much come from the dictatorship handbook “will of the people”, “traitors” “enemies of the people” to mention a few.

leave descriptions today is so different from what was touted by the leave campaigns three years ago but yet with the help of right wing mainstream press have someone made people believe that the version of Brexit they want now (no deal) is what they always wanted. 

I genuinely feel ashamed to be British and it is rather depressing to be honest. It might take decades to heal the divisions caused by this whole mess and frankly I am probably being optimistic about that.

Nah. I liken it to the Republicans over here in America: once all the scared old white people are gone, a multicultural society will rise up in its place.

 

Kind of ironic seeing how much the British conquered other lands around the world and were perfectly fine with assimilating aspects of other cultures into their own, but they draw the line at allowing the actual people of those cultures in, I guess.

 

Something tells me that even if Brexit is achieved, it won't last. The gross and negligent harm that it will cause to the UK while Europe flourishes are simply going to be unmatchable. There's nothing the UK can do on its own that the EU can't top by being a supernational entity and simply having more access to more resources.

 

The EU might not be perfect, but it's far better than the old days of "us vs. them." Clearly these people never listened to Pink Floyd.

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In retrospect, Boris Johnson's expectations for a Have Your Cake and Eat it too Brexit (which I will henceforth refer to as a Chocolate Cake Brexit because it sounds a lot better) were unreasonably optimistic as it doesn't look as though May could have realistically gotten the support from parliament needed for it in the first place. My estimates for a Salt & Vinegar Crisps Brexit (a nickname for the No-Deal Brexit) yesterday were around 40%, but today they're closer to 55%. 

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Not wanna mess up with other countries stuff, but why redo an already decided referendum? 

 

Also, I saw EU not being very friendly at all to the referendum. 

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43 minutes ago, rodster said:

why redo an already decided referendum? 

 

Objectively, the Leave campaign made several promises and postulated post-Brexit scenarios in that indicative non-binding referendum. Each of them involved a "deal" of some sorts, including "a"  custom union with the EU. More importantly, a "no deal" Brexit was ruled out and declared too ridiculous to contemplate. Now, 2 years later, Brexiteers are claiming 'no deal'  is the only true Brexit.  Which is not what the original Leave campaign was about. In that light, voters have a right to re-evaluate their prior choice.

 

Judging from past voting rounds, the UK parliament does not even come close to finding a majority for a 2nd referendum so this point is pretty much moot.

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10 hours ago, rodster said:

Not wanna mess up with other countries stuff, but why redo an already decided referendum? 

 

Also, I saw EU not being very friendly at all to the referendum. 

 

The wining margin by percentage was very small, referendums are advisory in this country which means ultimately any laws are voted through by our elected members of parliament. There is no reason to not call another vote really, especially if the winning side have been found guilty of breaking electoral rules during the campaign and despite appealing against this (citing a government stitch up), they suddenly drop the appeal the very day we are supposed to leave. Essentially they were guilty.

 

So after an evening where those wanting the withdrawal agreement essentially voted down any compromise and with several MPs in the conservatives wanting no deal from the start (The DUP are another story altogether), we are set for a way forward that even breaches the official leave campaign. The joys, I really hope it isn’t as bad as many think it will be because at this moment a big economic crash would likely trigger another big recession at least in Europe.

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2 hours ago, cannonball said:

 

The wining margin by percentage was very small, referendums are advisory in this country which means ultimately any laws are voted through by our elected members of parliament. There is no reason to not call another vote really, especially if the winning side have been found guilty of breaking electoral rules during the campaign and despite appealing against this (citing a government stitch up), they suddenly drop the appeal the very day we are supposed to leave. Essentially they were guilty.

 

So after an evening where those wanting the withdrawal agreement essentially voted down any compromise and with several MPs in the conservatives wanting no deal from the start (The DUP are another story altogether), we are set for a way forward that even breaches the official leave campaign. The joys, I really hope it isn’t as bad as many think it will be because at this moment a big economic crash would likely trigger another big recession at least in Europe.

EU: "You crashed out, won't harm us fam, we kept the rules you wanted to be rid of and it screwed your economy, you've got no one to blame but Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage." 

 

As I said earlier, never, ever trust a man named Nigel. Or Boris I suppose, but the Russian name should tip you off there.

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@Dark Pulse: I don't know about that, with terminology such as "cultural appropriation" and numerous recent articles deriding the concept of interracial relationships, it seems like the left are the ones actually calling for segregation these days. Racism comes in many forms, just that some forms seem to be more acceptable than others.

 

On topic: I voted Remain, and I've regretted it ever since. I've learned a lot about how the Euro Parliament operates in the last two years and as a result I really don't want to be a part of it anymore. And no, immigration has nothing to do with it. It has everything to do with things such as the EU Copyright Directive and the expansionist rhetoric coming from the likes of Juncker and Verhofstadt who seem to want the EU to become some sort of superpower to rival China (actually, the EUCD is a big step in that direction, given the inevitable hit to free expression). Their treatment of Ireland's vote on the Lisbon treaty is a good indication of how they work, in that they keep pushing for vote after vote until they get what THEY want, regardless of what the plebs originally voted for.

 

These are indeed uncertain times, but if Brexit is to succeed, then a no-deal situation is the only way it can IMO. The "deal" that has been on the table for the past year or so has been repeatedly rejected by MP's on both sides of the argument and for good reason - it effectively leaves the UK tied to Brussels, but completely toothless and without a say in EU policy. In other words, it's actually WORSE than being a full EU member. I say this as someone in favour of Irish independence (seriously, if you want to know what living in a "vassel state" feels like, try living in Norn Iron for a couple of years), and as someone who sees May's eagerness to get into bed with the DUP as the main obstacle to sorting out our own current issues. We haven't had an Assembly for several years now, and even when we did, it was little more than a dropbox for Westminster.

 

Things will be shaky for a few years, certainly, but change always comes with setbacks. I see little merit in going against the result of the referendum, as it would most likely cause even more shit, perhaps even to the extent of what's happening in France right now. The last thing we need is civil unrest.

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    I fully agree with Scalliano and I'm a foreigner living in the UK. The censorious and tyrannical EU parliament can fuck off, it's quickly becoming an unsustainable mess. I'm sick of censorship, and I'm even more sick of people coming here, having 10 kids and getting 90k pounds a year FOR DOING NOTHING while I have to work my ass off for under 20k. At this point I hope no deal wins and a general election is called to get rid of the rats infesting parliament.

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4 hours ago, killer2 said:

    I fully agree with Scalliano and I'm a foreigner living in the UK. The censorious and tyrannical EU parliament can fuck off, it's quickly becoming an unsustainable mess. I'm sick of censorship, and I'm even more sick of people coming here, having 10 kids and getting 90k pounds a year FOR DOING NOTHING while I have to work my ass off for under 20k. At this point I hope no deal wins and a general election is called to get rid of the rats infesting parliament.

Don’t worry the UK won’t be missing out on these mad internet laws. The first country to introduce a porn block where people will need to enter personal details to prove their age, this collection being run by a company owned by the biggest porn companies around who will be selling the personal data for millions of pounds.

At least the EU laws were at least Had some good intentions (even if the implementation looks to be a disaster for all of us)

The biggest con is to get people to look at one group and give them a label which if anything describes the other side better. You think the EU is corrupt, they have nothing on the Tory government and in particular those on the hard right.

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I want to add the following. No matter how big the difference is, even if the advantage is 0.01% the people as well as the politicians as well as international politicians and media have to accept such result. 

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I personally doubt "No deal" will happen now (although recently I believed it would).

 

It will be delay after delay until some watered down deal is made that gets enough MP's behind it, that is... Unless the EU say no. Which in all fairness they probably should, I'm sure they have better things to do.

 

Also although a moot point (as pointed out already) a 2nd referendum, would only be good for our MP's. Which, whatever way you voted, we all agree (or nearly all) that the house of commons is filled to the rafters with complete idiots, who should be dragged across the coals for utter incompetence. 

 

And on my last note, numerous leave campaigns did break the rules and over spend. This however is totally overlooked due to the 9 million pounds worth of leaflets sent to every household in Britain telling us exactly what will happen if we left ie. No deal.  

 

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Yeah that leaflet was essentially a freebie to the leave side. Add to that one of vote leave’s arguments was that a Turkey would join the EU in the near future. The UK was one of the strongest in lobbying this to go through (Well David Cameron was). That said how the fact the Greece would never allow it was never really stated outright, along with a load of other reasons and benefits which have vanished into thin air.

there is an odd humour living in The Fens which is one of the biggest pro-leave areas which now is wondering how it is going to harvest its crops this year....

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