Coronavirus pandemic chat [no medical advice plz]

[Phobus]

As somebody who occasionally commutes into central London, my biggest concern is that I'll catch it and not know long enough to transmit it to one of my parents or something. I have no doubt that I'll not enjoy having it, but I fully expect to recover if I do catch it. My parents in their 50s are at a higher risk, so I'm doing my best to avoid going into the office (given I can work from home anyway).

 

Naturally, a manager wants everybody in for a face-to-face tomorrow, when we've already had a warning email to let us know that somebody in the building has tested positive. Such is life.

[Caffeine Freak]

A little concerned, but not overly much. It's already in my state and has been just about 100 miles from me (or at least that was the most nearby confirmed case I know of). I've stocked up on some canned supplies for the unlikely case of a quarantine, or a mass panic in my area where people are stampeding to the grocery stores. I'm going to practice good hygiene as usual, and be careful in public places, but beyond that, I'm just going to carry on with life. Beyond certain precautionary measures, there's literally nothing I can do about whether I contract this virus, and I try to live my life not worrying about things I have no control over. 

 

As for my broader scale perspective, people are saying the mortality rate of this virus is at the 3-4% range, but I just find this hard to believe. It's flu season after all, and over 80% of Covid19 cases only suffer mild symptoms---ergo, many people who contract this disease won't even know they have it, and hence, will never go to the hospital. This being the case, along with the general high contagion rate of this virus, I suspect there's many *thousands* of undocumented cases that have gone under the radar. In all likelihood, the mortality rate is 1-2% at most. Still bad, but hardly the apocalypse plague. I don't know what kind of damage the flu causes in other countries, but here in the US, 61,000 Americans died of flu in the 2018-2019 flu season (six months). With the measures people are taking against Covid19, I'd be astonished if it ends up killing 1/100th that number in the US. 

 

The one thing I *do* worry about is that a significant number of people who get this disease (slightly less than 1/5th) experience complications requiring medical care---or at least that's what we seem to observe in China. If this same trend holds true elsewhere, then any region that experiences a significant hit from this virus could quickly have it's medical apparatus completely flooded, because regardless of how good one's healthcare system is, there simply aren't enough medical resources to care for that many patients all at once. And that means fatality rates begin rising more. 

Edited March 4, 2020 by Caffeine Freak

[NeedHealth]

Been bying shares in a brewing company and helping my local traders move stock.

 

[ReaperAA]

23 minutes ago, Phobus said:

As somebody who occasionally commutes into central London, my biggest concern is that I'll catch it and not know long enough to transmit it to one of my parents or something. I have no doubt that I'll not enjoy having it, but I fully expect to recover if I do catch it. My parents in their 50s are at a higher risk, so I'm doing my best to avoid going into the office (given I can work from home anyway).

 

I have same concern. I am young and chances of my survival are high. However my parents, like yours, are also in their 50s (my dad is also a smoker). My biggest fear is having my parents infected.

[Wereknight]

I have no opinion about this shit, I'm slav, I always vodka filled and therefore do not afraid of this.

[Doomkid]

15 hours ago, vinnie245 said:

I never said it was the solution i just said that more people need to focus on the problem that is overpopulation before it gets out of hand.

Unfortunately I think it is very unlikely that humanity as a whole stops breeding like rabbits. Surely a series of "natural" disasters or resource scarcity will kill a huge swath of us in the (near) future anyway - I don't want some dumb virus named after a cheap, pisswater beer to be the thing that cuts down the population. It should at least be something cool like mass starvation and violent World Wars fought over the whittling remains of clean, drinkable water!

[Budoka]

Overpopulation is pseudoscience. Every would-be prediction made by the Malthusian model has been repeatedly shot down by reality so many times over that it's comical. And each latest case is supposedly "different", except every single time, surprise, it isn't.

[seed]

1 minute ago, Doomkid said:

it should at least be something cool like mass starvation and violent World Wars fought over the whittling remains of clean, drinkable water!

 

Funny, this reminds me of some of the lyrics from Warfare by Zyklon-B :p :

 

,,War is good,
Aids is good,
Mass murder is good,
Gang violence is good,
Crack cocaine is good,
Anything that contributes to depopulating the Earth is good! "

[yakfak]

been constantly commingling with people in the town centre for the last two weeks and stealing handwash cream out of the bus station's bathrooms. hoping to catch the virus and harness its power to reconfigure my mind into a magical weapon

[Doomkid]

30 minutes ago, Budoka said:

Overpopulation is pseudoscience. Every would-be prediction made by the Malthusian model has been repeatedly shot down by reality so many times over that it's comical. And each latest case is supposedly "different", except every single time, surprise, it isn't.

I'm open to having the discussion and being presented with evidence, even though it's sort of off topic.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation#Current_population_dynamics,_and_cause_for_concern

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090418075752.htm

https://www.science.org.au/curious/earth-environment/population-environment

https://www.everythingconnects.org/overpopulation-effects.html

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/10/david-attenborough-warns-planet-cant-cope-with-overpopulation/

 

Some of the stuff that sticks out at me:

 

Quote

the rapid recent increase in human population has created concern. The population is expected to reach between 8 and 10.5 billion between the years 2040[14][15] and 2050.[16] In 2017, the United Nations increased the medium variant projections[17] to 9.8 billion for 2050 and 11.2 billion for 2100.[18]

As pointed out by Hans Rosling, the critical factor is that the population is not "just growing", but that the growth ratio reached its peak and the total population is now growing much slower.[19] The UN population forecast of 2017 was predicting "near end of high fertility" globally and anticipating that by 2030 over ⅔ of world population will be living in countries with fertility below the replacement level[20] and for total world population to stabilize between 10-12 billion people by year 2100.[21]

The rapid increase in world population over the past three centuries has raised concerns that the planet may not be able to sustain the future or even present number of its inhabitants. The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth, circa 1994, stated that many environmental problems, such as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution, are aggravated by the population expansion.[22]

 

Quote

In 2019, a warning on climate change signed by 11,000 scientists from 153 nations said that human population growth adds 80 million humans annually, and "the world population must be stabilized—and, ideally, gradually reduced—within a framework that ensures social integrity" to reduce the impact of "population growth on GHG emissions and biodiversity loss."[47][48]

Quote

Whether we have 500 million people or one trillion, we still have only one planet, which has a finite level of resources. The answer comes back to resource consumption. People around the world consume resources differently and unevenly. An average middle-class American consumes 3.3 times the subsistence level of food and almost 250 times the subsistence level of clean water. So if everyone on Earth lived like a middle class American, then the planet might have a carrying capacity of around 2 billion.

However, if people only consumed what they actually needed, then the Earth could potentially support a much higher figure.

But we need to consider not just quantity but also quality—Earth might be able to theoretically support over one trillion people, but what would their quality of life be like? Would they be scraping by on the bare minimum of allocated resources, or would they have the opportunity to lead an enjoyable and full life? 

More importantly, could these trillion people cooperate on the scale required, or might some groups seek to use a disproportionate fraction of resources? If so, might other groups challenge that inequality, including through the use of violence?

These are questions that are yet to be answered.

 

 

Exponential growth on that level is fundamentally unsustainable.

 

Hell, we might technically be able to survive with 10 billion, 20 billion or even 100 billion people - but when you consider the impact on biodiversity and what general quality of life of life would be like for the average person with those numbers - the picture becomes a lot more bleak. We're already doing far more than our fair share of damage to the planet with our current numbers. I think it's safe to assume, even aside from different countries having different resource usage rates, that more people is going to mean more resources are needed.

 

I could probably fit 40 people in my house, and they could feasibly live here. I mean, it would be physically possible, that is. I don't exactly think it would be an enjoyable experience, but it is technically possible..

 

EDIT: just to be even more inclusive of the counter arguments (I'm looking for the truth, not looking to be right)

 

Most of the data seems to suggest we're going to stabalize around 10-12 billion people. However, considering the amount of damage we've been able to do with 7 billion (and under) in the last few decades, I still think overpopulation is a cause for concern, primarily because of it's link to resource consumption. If we found renewable ways to produce food, drinkable water, and energy, the situation would be very different of course.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Doomkid

[Boomslang]

la la la, i'm so paranoid of this.

[Fonze]

It's ok folks there's no need to worry, Lysol is way ahead of the game on this one:

 

 

[Gez]

5 minutes ago, Fonze said:

It's ok folks there's no need to worry, Lysol is way ahead of the game on this one:

Now you just need to fill your lungs and bloodstream with lysol and... wait, someone is telling me that this is not a good idea. I don't see why. You can't catch Covid19 if you're dead!

 

45 minutes ago, Budoka said:

Overpopulation is pseudoscience. Every would-be prediction made by the Malthusian model has been repeatedly shot down by reality so many times over that it's comical. And each latest case is supposedly "different", except every single time, surprise, it isn't.

Obviously, the Earth can sustain an infinite population. I'm looking forward for when we turn our planet into a gravitational singularity under our own biomass.

[Budoka]

It can sustain much more people than we'll ever effectively produce. The whole 8 billion(or slightly under) of humans currently living on earth could functionnally live in the space of Texas alone. Anyway:

 

https://fee.org/articles/the-myth-that-the-world-is-facing-a-population-crisis/

[Tartlman]

 

wow this graph is probably the shittiest one i've ever seen

 

(i feel obligated to say why, even though it's pretty obvious - WHY THE FUCK DID YOU START AT 10000 BCE? WE DON'T HAVE ANY INFORMATION ON FUEL USE UNTIL LIKE THE 1800S)

[Gez]

43 minutes ago, Budoka said:

It can sustain much more people than we'll ever effectively produce. The whole 8 billion(or slightly under) of humans currently living on earth could functionnally live in the space of Texas alone. Anyway:

Just like we could eliminate poverty worldwide, or stop climate change, or eradicate AIDS, etc.

 

But we won't.

[MFG38]

2 hours ago, Doomkid said:

I don't want some dumb virus named after a cheap, pisswater beer to be the thing that cuts down the population.

 

Oi, Corona is a good beer!

[Solmyr]

It's a bit concerning, despite the fact that it spread to every continent barring Africa and Antartica, more or less 90,000 people are infected, and current death toll is about less than 3200, even the death rate of people avobe 60+ years old is fairly low, about 14%. Influenza kills far more people worldwide than this strain of coronavirus. In the end, it's another of many potentially deadly diseases mankind has to live with and eventually vaccinate against it, not the end of the world per se but still something that people should be concerned about, specially those who lives in countries and areas that have terrible healthcare, people who are most likely to die from it, and those that have relatives wich are 50+ years old. Pneumoniae is a pretty terrible experience.

[Juza]

It's being considered a global threat by basically every major health organization. Saying it isn't a big deal would be about plain out wrong.

 

I don't trust the statistics being given by China. Rather, I don't trust China for anything at all.

[Redneckerz]

I drank Corona Extra 1.5 weeks ago and now i have near pneumonia.

 

Joking aside (I do have the flu) i am on the fence.

• It is a thing. So it should not be understated
• The full on reporting by literally every outlet ranging from newspaper to instagram account to multiple TV shows and TV journals and everything in between, that is what generates the fear.

Hell, DW proves its concerned just by the speed of this thread alone.

 

So basically - Use common sense and don't kneejerk yourself into buying a billion mouth caps like everyone else does.

 

41 minutes ago, Juza said:

It's being considered a global threat by basically every major health organization. Saying it isn't a big deal would be about plain out wrong.

Because it really isn't that big of a deal that it constitutes daily reporting by literally every media channel out there. That 24-7 reporting and warning and opinions is what i find far more dangerous than the coronavirus itself.

[Cacodemon345]

I think it's better to be ready for it. Better safe than sorry.

 

Chancing your death is not the best idea, IMO.

 

And another thing to add to the coronavirus: The fact that it resulted in a epidemic in China and how the state media there behaved was enough once to draw some anti-CCP hashtags at Weibo before it got shot down. Also consider the rage it has caused. I mean China literally admitted that they were unable to contain the disease.

[Solmyr]

1 hour ago, Juza said:

It's being considered a global threat by basically every major health organization. Saying it isn't a big deal would be about plain out wrong.

That's not due to the disease itself rather, the mass hysteria associated with it that halted the chinese economy and harms global economy at large. Back in 2018 there were projections about a global recession that would take place between 2019-2020. Now with this virus said recession not only would be much worse than expected, but it would probably escalate further into an economic depression. 

About statistics, even if the chinese gov is lying, the disease already spread to other countries and continents, China can lie for itself but not for the world at large.

[FractalBeast]

@Doomkid You did some good research but do keep in mind that overpopulation is not the core problem. It merely exacerbates the core problem, which is extracting limited resources from the only planet you consider your own native biotope.

Imagine say, a world where all power is made with solar, wind, hydro or nuclear power. A world where there are mining operations off-world. A planet like that can house absurd amounts of people on it, because you've taken away a large amounts of ecological pressures on the habitat people are living in.

[Rare Hatchiama]

Never been much of an import beer guy.

[Clippy]

we're dun bud

[Cacodemon345]

In my local newspaper, there was a news that the Coronavirus disease outbreak would happen was predicted around one-generation ago in a book.

Basically it says that around 2020, there would be a pneumonia-like disease infecting everyone and then disappearing suddenly, and the same disease making a comeback 10 years later.

 

If all of that is, indeed, true, then well, we will have SARS-CoV-3 around 2030.

[Eurisko]

The scariest thing about all of this is as usual - the media. They are frightening people to death with the likes of not letting folks know that the poor people who are dying from it are elderly and/or with prior breathing issues.

I saw a  video of a radio presenter telling people that the roll out of 5G network was giving people the virus. I mean for fuck sake, no wonder people are getting a liittle freaked.

The mass media needs to learn to be more responsible.

 

 

 

 

[Clippy]

 

[Boaby Kenobi]

Deus Ex predicted this 20 years ago. 

[Kristian Nebula]

2 hours ago, Cacodemon345 said:

In my local newspaper, there was a news that the Coronavirus disease outbreak would happen was predicted around one-generation ago in a book.

Basically it says that around 2020, there would be a pneumonia-like disease infecting everyone and then disappearing suddenly, and the same disease making a comeback 10 years later.

 

If all of that is, indeed, true, then well, we will have SARS-CoV-3 around 2030.

 

It wasn't this one, was it? 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8053063/Did-1981-Dean-Koontz-thriller-Eyes-Darkness-predict-coronavirus-outbreak.html