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kuchitsu

Forming opinions on complex topics

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I don't and probably never will understand the Big Bang theory since that requires extensive knowledge in physics I guess, and I don't like physics. Is it still normal for me to think that it's probably true due to the overwhelming support by scientists? Atheists often look down on believers because they accept stuff without proof, but for atheists it's okay to believe in theories they personally can't understand? Or how does this work? I can maybe believe that most scientific knowledge about electricity is most likely true since I see a lot of applications of it every day. But it's a lot trickier with something that happened gazillion years ago somewhere far away in space.

Then there are even more controversial things like the global warming. Many "important" people say it's real, some say it's a hoax. How does a regular person figure out what to believe if they don't understand anything on the topic?

It just surprises me how when these topics are being discussed in real life or on internet forums, so many people are able to speak with great confidence even though they most likely don't know jack shit. Where does it come from?

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kuchitsu said:

Then there are even more controversial things like the global warming. Many "important" people say it's real, some say it's a hoax. How does a regular person figure out what to believe if they don't understand anything on the topic?


I don't know about the Big Bang (who cares, anyway?), but about the global warming.. i believe in it, because for the last 2-3 years there has been some noticable weather changes in my area (for example, December, January, February used to be the coldest months in the year; now the coldest months are January, February, March; and December is.. actually warm.. this year atleast)..

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Most people don't know much. Ergo, it's common to learn to fake confidence during the socialisation process, teen years or earlier.

You've got a second type who excel in one particular area of knowledge and then starts thinking being an expert at one thing makes them the authority in everything.

Just like you I was out of the loop, asking myself the same questions well into my twenties, and this ended up being my conclusion, anyway. Beyond social engineering, I think there's a net value in acting confident, because there's only so many disclaimers you can add for the sake of accuracy before the discussion stalls. It's often better to be decisively wrong than probably right, as it gives an opportunity for others to reject your opinion and offer their counterpoints, from which you can learn and keep the talk going.

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kuchitsu said:

Then there are even more controversial things like the global warming. Many "important" people say it's real, some say it's a hoax. How does a regular person figure out what to believe if they don't understand anything on the topic?

The people who claim that climate change isn't real are usually paranoid conspiracy theorists who think that it's a hoax designed by the "New world Order" to control the populace, or they're ultra-far right conservatives who take the bible as word, and are anti-intellectual and anti-science (or they're just oil moguls that are pissed at the green movement because it hurts their business.) If you want to educate yourself on the topic, listen to climate change researchers and other experts in the field. Conspiracy theorists are usually what they seem to be: paranoid, misinformed, and will never accept the true answer, no matter how much evidence is thrown at them.

kuchitsu said:

don't and probably never will understand the Big Bang theory since that requires extensive knowledge in physics I guess, and I don't like physics. Is it still normal for me to think that it's probably true due to the overwhelming support by scientists? Atheists often look down on believers because they accept stuff without proof, but for atheists it's okay to believe in theories they personally can't understand? Or how does this work? I can maybe believe that most scientific knowledge about electricity is most likely true since I see a lot of applications of it every day. But it's a lot trickier with something that happened gazillion years ago somewhere far away in space.

The Big Bang Theory is just that at the moment - a theory. It's the best answer we have right now to the creation of the universe. The great thing about science is that it constantly improves, so in 200 years or so, we'll probably have a better answer than the BBT, or the theory will turn out to be fact. Therefore it's perfectly normal to think that the BBT is fact. Sure, I believe what scientists say about the BBT, but that's because I believe that scientists care more about discovering how the universe works, instead of bathing in religious dogma and pushing their agenda.

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You have to simplify, and also not jump to conclusions when there's not enough data. Who cares about Big Bang? It doesn't affect us here and now, it's something for physicists to dwell on. The climate may be changing, but then again it has done so throughout the history of this planet. But there is measurable polution, and that is a fact that stands on its own, regardless of climate. There is very heavy polution in places like India and China, and the seas also have so much that the fish have mercury toxicity and we can't eat fish every day now like it was once possible. Even western cities like Paris are heavily poluted from diesel engines, to the point where they compared themselves to Beijing just so they can say "oh well at least it's not that bad". These are real, very visibie, and measurable problems that have to be addressed.
You also have to be careful of who is talking, and what their agenda is. Sometimes also things are said in order to create a distraction from other issues. Observe how the western european medias don't (willingly and in a timely fashion) ever report on the negative aspects of the (manufactured) "refugee crisis", but instead there's lots of talk about other things, like climate change for example.

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kuchitsu said:

Atheists often look down on believers because they accept stuff without proof, but for atheists it's okay to believe in theories they personally can't understand? Or how does this work?

It just surprises me how when these topics are being discussed in real life or on internet forums, so many people are able to speak with great confidence even though they most likely don't know jack shit. Where does it come from?

1. It's as simple as this: The less you understand about the subject, the lesser value your opinion about the subject has - respectively, the less likely your opinion about the subject is true, no matter what the opinion is. Accepting opinions of those, who know more about the subject than you do, is just a possible strategy of trying to form an opinion that holds true as likely as possible. As for whether it's okay or not - well, there's at least one advantage over religious belief, and that is, all scientific facts are verifiable and all scientific theories have justified foundations, which anyone can re-check anytime. And even if you refused to believe absolutely anybody's word and still wanted to find out "truths", you could educate yourself to learn all of the subject's basics up to the issue which you're unsure about and whose truthfulness allegedly comes from nothing else than the aforementioned basics, to judge its truthfulness yourself.

2. What Phml said is probably right. :)

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Lack of knowledge should not prevent you from having an opinion. As you venture in to any subject deeper and deeper, you realize more clearly your lack of understanding. Every measurement comes with inherent error, and every scientist makes assumptions somewhere in the chain of measurement (e.g. is a microbiologist going to spend 10 years researching optics for a deeper understanding of how photons interact with various glasses? No they're just going to pick up that microscope and use it to the best of their ability to calibrate it).

So go ahead and make an opinion about whatever you feel like, just leave room for it to change in the event that you feel you've learned more about it. The real moron is the one who sticks to their opinion for the only reason that "it's my initial opinion and I want to be right on the first attempt".

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kuchitsu said:

...the global warming...

It just surprises me how when these topics are being discussed in real life or on internet forums, so many people are able to speak with great confidence even though they most likely don't know jack shit. Where does it come from?



It's actually quite simple. Some people base their opinion on facts and actual research.

Others base their opinion on who is paying their bills. So for most global warming denialists it might be prudent to ask what personal benefit they have from propagating bullshit.

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Science is not the enemy of the divine. It is the very essence of the divine. Global warming though is difficult to grasp. I believe climate change is caused by a combination of many complex factors. Human impact of course, (look at the forces we toy with in regards to the chaos theory i.e the LHC creating black hole's. ) natural climate change and possible unforseen circumstances. On top of that the 2nd law of thermodynamics says basicly everything will eventually die at an increased rate (energy maloptimization in complex matter systems. Biological and inorganic)

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kuchitsu said:

It just surprises me how when these topics are being discussed in real life or on internet forums, so many people are able to speak with great confidence even though they most likely don't know jack shit. Where does it come from?

You do not need a phd level of study in a subject to understand the main bits.

Atheists often look down on believers because they accept stuff without proof, but for atheists it's okay to believe in theories they personally can't understand? Or how does this work? I can maybe believe that most scientific knowledge about electricity is most likely true since I see a lot of applications of it every day. But it's a lot trickier with something that happened gazillion years ago somewhere far away in space.

I suppose that requires being able to put some trust in learned people that do the work and further trusting them to check each others work.

One thing you may find interesting is the history of of the study of black holes. Not the objects themselves, but how we came to understand what we currently know about them. They were mere consequential mathematical models many decades before they were identified as actual celestial bodies that really existed and did in fact have properties they were theorized to have. Many ideas tend to follow this pattern of being understood.

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Who knows maybe the Big Bang was caused by a black hole of immense proportion splitting the inter dimensional fabric bringing forth matter in such a compacted mass that it caused a stupendous resonance cascade episode firing the trans-dimensional matter so fast that it will increase speed exponentially for all eternity.

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kuchitsu said:

[...] How does a regular person figure out what to believe if they don't understand anything on the topic?

It just surprises me how when these topics are being discussed in real life or on internet forums, so many people are able to speak with great confidence even though they most likely don't know jack shit. Where does it come from?

Reading. Lots and lots of reading.

You're right though, there are a lot of people out there who like to discuss these topics in great depth even though they lack basic knowledge on the topics. For some this is a way to get interested and go learn more, for others - for reasons I don't fully understand - it's a place to defend points that have little to no evidence backing them. I have to assume someone (or some entity of some sort - tv show, news, whatever else) they trusted supplied them with misinformation and they couldn't be bothered to fact check, so instead they go around spreading this misinformation even further.

To me, the easiest way to 'subtract the spin' from whatever you're hearing, from whoever you're hearing it from, is to look into that person/entity and their priorities and agendas. It then becomes easier to tell whether they're spreading crap around solely for their benefit, or if the things they are saying are genuine. Again, this generally requires a lot of reading, which isn't a bad thing.

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I like learning about physics even though it's just the concept I'm understanding rather then the definitive math behind it. Global warming I don't find to be so complex, we can track where our atmosphere is getting hit the hardest. It's fine to have an opinion on something, as for weight the opinion has I don't know how much weight one would have based on conceptual logic or what someone understands as the source material for such. Our education has been proven wrong and on some things the intricacies are quite hard to understand, as why people go to school for years to learn these things.

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Gothic Box said:

The people who claim that climate change isn't real are usually paranoid conspiracy theorists who think that it's a hoax designed by the "New world Order" to control the populace, or they're ultra-far right conservatives who take the bible as word, and are anti-intellectual and anti-science (or they're just oil moguls that are pissed at the green movement because it hurts their business.) If you want to educate yourself on the topic, listen to climate change researchers and other experts in the field. Conspiracy theorists are usually what they seem to be: paranoid, misinformed, and will never accept the true answer, no matter how much evidence is thrown at them.

The Big Bang Theory is just that at the moment - a theory. It's the best answer we have right now to the creation of the universe. The great thing about science is that it constantly improves, so in 200 years or so, we'll probably have a better answer than the BBT, or the theory will turn out to be fact. Therefore it's perfectly normal to think that the BBT is fact. Sure, I believe what scientists say about the BBT, but that's because I believe that scientists care more about discovering how the universe works, instead of bathing in religious dogma and pushing their agenda.

Global Warming most likely isn't caused by humans as much as they like to claim. In the sixties everyone freaked because they thought the Earth was cooling. It's a theory, just like the Big Bang and every other theory we like to think is totally correct until something undeniable proves it wrong; most of these Global Warming theories are used for political agendas. We don't even know wtf gravity is, but scientists will spout the theory as absolute truth. They never mention Mars is warming up, too, or that actually we're well over due for an ice age.

Besides, when Yellow Stone blows cow farts and muffler fumes will be the last of our troubles, considering radioactive volcanic ash will be falling on most of the USA and create serious problems for society as we know it.

Dat nature doh, human created oil still can't compete wit dat nature.

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The first thing to understand is that science is more reliable than any contradictory source because science itself is skepticism applied, as explained very well here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T69TOuqaqXI

Regarding the popular idea that the Big Bang theory explains the origin of spacetime, well that's not strictly speaking true. But as far that's concerned I would recommend the YT channel PBS Space Time, they'll explain it to you better than I can.

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Flesh420 said:

Global Warming most likely isn't caused by humans as much as they like to claim. In the sixties everyone freaked because they thought the Earth was cooling. It's a theory, just like the Big Bang and every other theory we like to think is totally correct until something undeniable proves it wrong; most of these Global Warming theories are used for political agendas. We don't even know wtf gravity is, but scientists will spout the theory as absolute truth. They never mention Mars is warming up, too, or that actually we're well over due for an ice age.

Besides, when Yellow Stone blows cow farts and muffler fumes will be the last of our troubles, considering radioactive volcanic ash will be falling on most of the USA and create serious problems for society as we know it.

Dat nature doh, human created oil still can't compete wit dat nature.

Take note, memfis. Here's a perfect example that you can have an opinion on any complex matter without understanding anything about it, or even just the concept of scientific theory. Just wing it and go with the gut feel, reality will be decided by a popularity poll later on.

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My global warming denial BINGO card is full.

kuchitsu said:

Atheists often look down on believers because they accept stuff without proof, but for atheists it's okay to believe in theories they personally can't understand? Or how does this work?

Belief is not required.

The advantage of the scientific process is that you can observe and reproduce results for yourself. The very process of empiricism takes advantage of itself, as there is no more reliable way to predict or explain natural behavior. Some in this forum might believe that you need to grasp philosophy to understand "why" this works, but this is another a priori unfalsifiable statement that ultimately can't be substantiated with facts.

Also, be careful not to fall into the trap of misunderstanding the term "theory".

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Bucket said:

Also, be careful not to fall into the trap of misunderstanding the term "theory".

Germ theory of disease is just a theory maaaaan, what do you know to tell us what to think?

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Quast said:

Germ theory of disease is just a theory maaaaan, what do you know to tell us what to think?

If only Bucket was as good at making maps as he was at being a keyboard warrior... missed opporunities, smh fam.

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kuchitsu said:

I don't and probably never will understand the Big Bang theory since that requires extensive knowledge in physics I guess, and I don't like physics. Is it still normal for me to think that it's probably true due to the overwhelming support by scientists? Atheists often look down on believers because they accept stuff without proof, but for atheists it's okay to believe in theories they personally can't understand? Or how does this work? I can maybe believe that most scientific knowledge about electricity is most likely true since I see a lot of applications of it every day. But it's a lot trickier with something that happened gazillion years ago somewhere far away in space.

Then there are even more controversial things like the global warming. Many "important" people say it's real, some say it's a hoax. How does a regular person figure out what to believe if they don't understand anything on the topic?

It just surprises me how when these topics are being discussed in real life or on internet forums, so many people are able to speak with great confidence even though they most likely don't know jack shit. Where does it come from?


Your argument reminded me of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3l3QxSpfxY

In my own deffense, I demand to be allowed to state that I *do have* a daughter who likes cinderella and has watched that movie so many times I had to end up liking it or kill myself, what-have-you. :D

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Flesh420 said:

most of these Global Warming theories are used for political agendas. We don't even know wtf gravity is

dew said:

Take note, memfis. Here's a perfect example that you can have an opinion on any complex matter without understanding anything about it

ROFL

"Yellowstone might erupt so let's not bother to even attempt to take care of the planet" has to be the dumbest thing I've read this week.

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I tend to listen to very different points of view, especially if they conflict with each other. I then fail to form a solid opinion on the subject and float between different perspectives without taking a solid stance. I don't really believe in that feeling of certainty that you're on the right path. I like to think of myself as perpetually wrong about everything. That's liberating to me. Why be concerned with being right? I'm concerned with understanding perspectives. Yeah, I might say you're being dogmatic, or that I disagree with you, but I'll still try to understand where you're coming from. There have been countless times that I completely changed my opinion because I respected where someone was coming from.

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Doomkid said:

ROFL

"Yellowstone might erupt so let's not bother to even attempt to take care of the planet"


Damn I better finish my mod then...

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