Here's an old post I made on the subject,
This is clearly an attrition contest, we'll just have to wait and see who will really "lose" in the long term. Has the EU stopped buying Russian gas and oil so far? Nope it hasn't. It can't put sanctions against everybody and the cat, either (e.g. Iran), and depend 100% on US and Saudi tankers, or Turkish pipelines. That would be just as bad a strategic cul-de-sac as being entirely dependent on Russia.
This is totally backwards. It's Russia that's losing money faster over this dispute, they would find themselves destabilized much faster
Doesn't mean it's out of the game, though. Plus, as you said, there's China to take into consideration, which can do some pretty nasty stuff, with the US bonds, outstananding credits to the US and USD reserves it has. Plus, I believe that at some point some powerful nation (with nukes) will say "fuck all this phony debt system that's poisoning the people of the world" and repudiate debt by force (or rather, with a "come and get it" attitude). It wouldn't be the first time, either (Bolschevik's foreign debt repudiation).
not to mention they're still greatly indebted to the US and that crazy Putin's aide who indicated Russia might stop paying their debts was quickly silenced.
Which "rich West" exactly? The US? OK, I can understand that, militarily untouchable due to distance on their own continent, and self-reliant (?) when it comes to Energy. But Europe has to come to terms with Russia, or ask for Uncle Sam's intervention and protection once more. They are just too dependent, which explains why the "severe sanctions" they proposed so far will at most affect a few oligarchs' wives and girlfriends ability to shop at Harrods :-) Let alone that the EU has exactly zero weight foreign policy: when it comes to such matters, it's every nation for itself, though there might be a common guideline.
When it comes to economic starvation, the rich West still holds the trumph cards. Well, at least when it doesn't concern China, then the West should better tread lightly (as it is).
AFAIK, shale gas extraction is expected to account for the 30% of the US's own needs in 10 years. How much of that will go to Europe? And at what price? Will need overcome "EU patriotism"? Will Frau Merkel instruct everybody to buy the overpriced US "freedom gas" rather than deal directly with the "stinking Ivans"? Economic pragmatism will have to prevail over a bubblegun & spit "economic union" and its weak institutions. Unless the EU will be a total and offical satellite to the US by then....if it's not already. In any case, life will be harder for the little guy, on either side of the Eurasian continent.
There are two factors to this: America legalizing export of its strategic reserves, which this event triggered into motion, and both sides building ports capable of loading/unloading liquified gas. Not sure how far the plans are on the Murcan side, but the Polish terminal in Świnoujście was already meant to be operable. Current ETA is 2 years, iirc. It should have enough capacity to feed a few countries and the original plan was to unload Quatari gas.
Hummmm. Greece is a member of the EU and NATO (so far). Cyprus is a member of the EU, but not of NATO. Therefore, it's the EU's airspace and water borders that are being violated by Turkey (not in the EU, but it is a NATO power). I understand that there are much more complex geopolitical games at stake here (including the USA and Israel, among others), but that just goes to show you how powerless and hopeless any "Euroarmy" would be. It simply cannot compete with the "big dogs" in the world's chessboard.
Yeah, uh. You see, I wasn't talking about NATO, you know? Those squabbles exist exactly because both the countries are NATO members and Murca just calms both sides with military donations.
The Greek-Turkish relations is a much more complex, ongoing chapter of geopolitics also involving bigger players, and perhaps I shouldn't have mentioned it here. But it also just goes to show you how insignificant the EU is, compared to what it's going on at its doorstep.
Also such uneasy truces where both countries provoking each other are status quo are fairly common throughout the world. Also who says Greece would be a member country, heh. If anything, the problems you mention would lead to problematic countries being singled out. This is nothing to spring to motion next year, mind you, this is to be a decade long process.
Who knows...80 years ago some people thought that a Hitler today may be preferable to a Stalin tomorrow. And so far the EU and USA seems to accept many new "Hitlers" where this is convenient. In contrast, the leader of the Greek "fascist" party Golden Dawn, Nikolaos Mihaloliakos is currently imprisoned, effectively kept in conditions of political prisony, after being "shocked and awed in legality" (sic) in order to politically vanquish his party (which BTW received 7.8% of the votes, and is estimated to be beyond 20% now), after pretty much direct orders from Bruxelles to "suppress fascist elements". So that means that there are "good fascists" and "bad fascists" too.
Yarosh is a fascist and a rabid dog. If he were to gain any serious lasting influence, then it's truly time to cut a deal with Russia instead, heh.
Last edited by Maes on Mar 16 2014 at 18:43